**Recent polling volatility and the provincewide campaign launch have kept Quebec's seat outlook for the Parti Québécois tightly clustered around the 45–60 seat range.** The October 5 election features a new 127-seat map. PQ support has held near 28–30% in most surveys through late August, buoyed by francophone concentration that translates into efficient riding wins, while the CAQ has closed to a statistical tie at 27% in the latest Synopsis poll amid rising voter concern over the U.S. trade dispute. This surge, concentrated among women and voters over 55, has narrowed earlier PQ leads and introduced greater uncertainty in francophone ridings. The split federalist vote across CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives further aids PQ plurality prospects without guaranteeing a majority. Seat models reflect this balance, with wide ranges reflecting both polling movement and the potential for late-campaign shifts before early-October voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado<50 27%
50-54 20%
55-59 13%
65-69 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 oct 2026
<50
27%
50-54
20%
55-59
13%
60-64
8%
65-69
11%
70-74
11%
75-79
3%
80+
4%
<50 27%
50-54 20%
55-59 13%
65-69 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 oct 2026
<50
$1,065 Vol.
27%
50-54
$926 Vol.
20%
55-59
$423 Vol.
13%
60-64
$775 Vol.
8%
65-69
$2,484 Vol.
11%
70-74
$1,706 Vol.
11%
75-79
$956 Vol.
3%
80+
$839 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling volatility and the provincewide campaign launch have kept Quebec's seat outlook for the Parti Québécois tightly clustered around the 45–60 seat range.**
The October 5 election features a new 127-seat map. PQ support has held near 28–30% in most surveys through late August, buoyed by francophone concentration that translates into efficient riding wins, while the CAQ has closed to a statistical tie at 27% in the latest Synopsis poll amid rising voter concern over the U.S. trade dispute. This surge, concentrated among women and voters over 55, has narrowed earlier PQ leads and introduced greater uncertainty in francophone ridings. The split federalist vote across CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives further aids PQ plurality prospects without guaranteeing a majority. Seat models reflect this balance, with wide ranges reflecting both polling movement and the potential for late-campaign shifts before early-October voting.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volumen
$9,174Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling volatility and the provincewide campaign launch have kept Quebec's seat outlook for the Parti Québécois tightly clustered around the 45–60 seat range.**
The October 5 election features a new 127-seat map. PQ support has held near 28–30% in most surveys through late August, buoyed by francophone concentration that translates into efficient riding wins, while the CAQ has closed to a statistical tie at 27% in the latest Synopsis poll amid rising voter concern over the U.S. trade dispute. This surge, concentrated among women and voters over 55, has narrowed earlier PQ leads and introduced greater uncertainty in francophone ridings. The split federalist vote across CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives further aids PQ plurality prospects without guaranteeing a majority. Seat models reflect this balance, with wide ranges reflecting both polling movement and the potential for late-campaign shifts before early-October voting.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$9,174Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling volatility and the provincewide campaign launch have kept Quebec's seat outlook for the Parti Québécois tightly clustered around the 45–60 seat range.** The October 5 election features a new 127-seat map. PQ support has held near 28–30% in most surveys through late August, buoyed by francophone concentration that translates into efficient riding wins, while the CAQ has closed to a statistical tie at 27% in the latest Synopsis poll amid rising voter concern over the U.S. trade dispute. This surge, concentrated among women and voters over 55, has narrowed earlier PQ leads and introduced greater uncertainty in francophone ridings. The split federalist vote across CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives further aids PQ plurality prospects without guaranteeing a majority. Seat models reflect this balance, with wide ranges reflecting both polling movement and the potential for late-campaign shifts before early-October voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes