Julianne Moore’s performance as a volatile aspiring actress in Jesse Eisenberg’s “The Debut” has emerged as the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with her market-implied odds surging after the film’s recent festival screenings and rapturous reviews praising her fearless, scene-stealing turn. The Academy has historically rewarded such bold, career-highlight work from established stars, and early industry buzz positions Moore as the clear frontrunner. Inde Navarrette’s chilling lead in the horror thriller “Obsession” and Renate Reinsve’s dramatic turn in “Fjord” trail as the next tier of contenders, while Sandra Hüller and others remain longer shots pending fuller campaign visibility. With festival season ongoing and nominations months away, late-breaking critical consensus or guild momentum could still reshape the field before voting begins.