Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de PA-15
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de PA-15
$13,384 Vol.
$13,384 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
94%
Partido Demócrata
7%
$13,384 Vol.
$13,384 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$5,359 Vol.
94%
Partido Demócrata
$8,025 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$13,384Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$13,384Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability to win Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, driven by the district's strong R+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index—ranking among the most Republican nationally—and Thompson's nine prior terms with consistent 70%+ general election margins. Recent first-quarter fundraising reports show Thompson raising over $360,000, dwarfing challenger Ray Bilger (D), a military veteran who announced in February with limited resources. No polling indicates competitiveness, and ratings remain Solid Republican across forecasters. With primaries four days away on May 19, an upset there or late scandal, health issue, or national Democratic wave could challenge this, though structural barriers make shifts unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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