**Chou Chun-mi, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) incumbent magistrate of Pingtung County, holds an 86.5% implied probability in the market, while Kuomintang (KMT) challenger Su Ching-chuan sits at 14%.** The race centers on their rematch from the 2022 election, which Chou won by roughly 2.5 percentage points. As the sitting magistrate, Chou benefits from incumbency in a county where the DPP has maintained a narrow edge in recent cycles. The dominant recent development is Su’s June 2026 indictment related to a 2024 hospital fire at a facility he founded, in which nine people died amid building-code violations. Prosecutors reversed an earlier deferred-prosecution agreement that had included victim compensation and community service. This legal setback has materially weakened Su’s position ahead of the November 28, 2026 vote. Campaign activity, including endorsements for Su and pointed exchanges over agricultural and public-safety issues, has not narrowed the gap. With the election still months away, the market reflects trader consensus that the indictment and Chou’s incumbency create substantial structural advantages for the DPP candidate, though late developments in the final campaign period could still shift outcomes.