No major candidates have formally declared for the 2028 presidential race, leaving an unusually open field two years out. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with Vice President JD Vance at the top of Republican primary polling but facing questions about general-election strength amid mixed midterm signals for his party. On the Democratic side, early surveys favor Kamala Harris while prediction markets price Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez higher, underscoring divides over progressive turnout versus broader appeal. Recent developments, including AOC’s post-midterm decision timeline, a post-election Democratic strategy summit featuring potential contenders, and minor Republican positioning ahead of November 2026, keep probabilities fragmented. Outcomes hinge on midterm results, primary calendar adjustments, and any late shifts in candidate positioning.