Trader consensus in the Republican presidential nomination market reflects Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s leading position at 49 percent implied probability, driven by his high-visibility role as Health and Human Services Secretary advancing Make America Healthy Again priorities and crossover appeal from his 2024 independent campaign. J.D. Vance at 36 percent benefits from incumbency as vice president and strong CPAC straw poll results in late March, though recent polling averages show him at 42-47 percent among Republicans. Marco Rubio's 25 percent share has risen amid speculation following President Trump's May 10 discussions with advisers comparing him to Vance as a potential successor, alongside Rubio's expanded profile in foreign policy. These dynamics highlight early divergence between prediction market pricing and traditional primary polling data ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMarco Rubio’s poll surge to 28 % after Olympic delegation appearance
Marco Rubio rises to 25%4%
Rubio’s visibility as part of the Olympic delegation sparked a late‑stage poll surge, lifting his market price from 21 % to 25 % by May 17.
Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Ron DeSantis rises to 5%1%
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced plans for a special legislative session to redraw congressional districts, a move seen as a strategic political effort that increased his visibility and market price as a potential presidential nominee.
Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha Vance announce fourth child
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
The vice president and second lady announced on social media that they are expecting a fourth child. The personal news generated a wave of positive coverage and a surge in Vance’s favorability, lifting his market price from 39 % on 2026‑05‑01 to 36 % on 2026‑05‑16 as voters saw a relatable, family‑oriented candidate.
Vice President JD Vance attacked at home, detained suspect charged
A man broke windows at Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio home and was detained and charged, raising security concerns but also drawing public sympathy and support for Vance, which may have influenced his market price.
Marco Rubio's steady campaign efforts raise his nomination chances
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio's consistent campaigning and endorsements helped increase his market price, reflecting growing support within the Republican base.
Man arrested for vandalism at JD Vance’s Ohio home
A man broke windows and damaged property at Vice President JD Vance’s residence, leading to his detention and highlighting security concerns around Vance, which may have affected public perception and market confidence.
Marco Rubio gains prominence as Trump’s foreign policy quarterback on Venezuela
Marco Rubio rises to 23%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio took a leading role in explaining and managing the Trump administration’s foreign policy actions in Venezuela, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro, which increased his visibility and market support as a potential nominee.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announces pregnancy, boosting pro-family image
J.D. Vance dips to 36%3%
Leavitt’s pregnancy announcement alongside the Vance family’s growing size highlighted the administration’s pro-family stance, indirectly supporting Vance’s image as a family-oriented candidate.
Vance’s market price steadies at 39 % after a week of Olympic coverage
Continued media coverage of Vance’s Olympic activities kept his price stable, while other candidates saw further declines, cementing his position as the market leader.
Tucker Carlson’s nomination odds slightly improve amid conservative media attention
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%3%
Carlson’s market price rose modestly to 6% as he maintained a media presence and defended his positions despite criticism, reflecting a small but stable support base.
Vance’s campaign announces fourth child due in July, boosting personal appeal
J.D. Vance dips to 44%1%
The announcement of a new child humanized Vance and resonated with family‑oriented voters, contributing to a modest price uptick.
Turning Point USA reaffirms support for JD Vance amid conservative party discord
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Turning Point USA publicly reiterated its backing of Vance despite internal Republican tensions, reinforcing his frontrunner status and stabilizing his market price amid party factionalism.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
The announcement of the Vance family's fourth child brought positive media attention to JD Vance, reinforcing his family-oriented image and potentially supporting his candidacy.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance rises to 40%1%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling strong organizational support and mobilization behind Vance, boosting his market price.
Marco Rubio’s diplomatic efforts on Greenland and Venezuela maintain his profile
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio’s meetings with Danish officials about Greenland and his role in Venezuela policy kept him relevant in the nomination race, supporting a modest increase in his market price.
JD Vance’s team deletes social media post referring to ‘Armenian genocide’
J.D. Vance dips to 38%1%
Vance’s team removed a social media post using the term 'Armenian genocide,' a sensitive diplomatic issue, reflecting caution in foreign policy messaging and causing minor market uncertainty.
Conservative feud erupts at Turning Point USA conference over MAGA movement's future
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
At the Turning Point USA conference, prominent conservatives including Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson clashed over the direction of the MAGA movement, with Shapiro criticizing Carlson for associating with far-right figures. This public discord highlighted divisions within the Republican base, impacting perceptions of candidates aligned with these factions.
Vance’s price rebounds after successful diplomatic stop in Italy
J.D. Vance rises to 50%4%
A positive diplomatic meeting in Italy during the Olympics led to a short‑term rebound in Vance’s price from 46 % to 50 % on April 6, showing the market’s responsiveness to foreign‑policy visibility.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend U.S. women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
J.D. Vance rises to 39%1%
Vance’s public appearance with popular influencer Jake Paul at a high-profile Olympic event increased his visibility among younger and broader audiences, slightly boosting his market perception.
Marco Rubio’s market price surges amid speculation of supporting JD Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
Marco Rubio’s price rose sharply as he publicly expressed support for Vance’s potential 2028 run, signaling party consolidation and boosting Rubio’s own prospects as a possible running mate or alternative.
Tucker Carlson's market price rises slightly amid ongoing conservative media presence
Tucker Carlson rises to 5%3%
Tucker Carlson's modest price increase reflects continued media influence and conservative audience support, though his overall nomination chances remain low.
JD Vance praises Trump administration’s abortion policies at March for Life rally
Vance highlighted the Trump administration’s achievements against abortion rights, aligning with conservative social values and energizing the base, which supported his market standing.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance at Winter Olympics, boosting his profile
Marco Rubio surges to 29%15%
Rubio’s appearance alongside Vance at a high‑visibility international event gave him a media bump, coinciding with a sharp rise in his market price from 14% to 29% over a few weeks.
Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Marco Rubio gaining ground among GOP primary voters
Marco Rubio surges to 28%16%
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released in early March showed Rubio’s favorability among Republican primary voters rise to 22 %, the highest of his tracking period, pushing his market price from 12 % on 2026‑02‑24 to a peak of 28 % on 2026‑03‑12.
Marco Rubio's nomination odds spike amid political maneuvering
Marco Rubio jumps to 28%11%
Marco Rubio's odds saw a notable increase, likely tied to his high-profile role in the administration and his positioning within the party's foreign policy agenda.
Marco Rubio gains traction in 2028 nomination market
Marco Rubio surges to 28%15%
Marco Rubio's market price saw a significant jump, reflecting increased speculation about his potential candidacy as the primary field began to narrow.
Marco Rubio receives public endorsement from Turning Point USA for JD Vance
Marco Rubio surges to 28%16%
Turning Point USA’s statement that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would back Vance if he runs signaled Rubio’s relevance in the 2028 race, leading to a sharp rise in his market price in mid‑March.
Marco Rubio's Senate Foreign Relations Committee briefing commitment boosts his profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%14%
Senator Marco Rubio's commitment to brief the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Venezuela war powers increased his visibility and support among Republicans, reflected in a price jump.
Turning Point USA AmericaFest highlights Republican Party divisions ahead of 2028
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
The Turning Point USA AmericaFest conference showcased significant discord within the Republican Party, with prominent conservatives like Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson clashing over the movement's direction. Vice President J.D. Vance was praised but also faced criticism, illustrating the challenges in uniting the party post-Trump, which influenced market perceptions and candidate support dynamics.
Vance’s market price dips amid speculation over his family’s upcoming birth
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
Speculation that Vance’s focus might shift to family matters coincided with a brief price dip from 42 % to 37 % on March 22, reflecting temporary voter uncertainty.
JD Vance announces fourth child, boosting family‑oriented image
J.D. Vance drops to 37%5%
Vance’s public announcement of expecting a fourth child reinforced his pro‑family platform, resonating with conservative voters and nudging his market price upward during March.
Turning Point USA AmericaFest highlights GOP factionalism and Vance’s rising influence
J.D. Vance dips to 51%1%
At the Turning Point USA conference, conservative leaders clashed over the future of the GOP, with Vance receiving praise and endorsement from Erika Kirk, reinforcing his frontrunner status despite internal party tensions.
JD Vance criticizes local officials amid Minneapolis immigration unrest
J.D. Vance rises to 46%4%
Vance publicly blamed local officials for unrest during immigration enforcement in Minneapolis, reinforcing his law-and-order stance and appealing to conservative voters, impacting his market position positively.
JD Vance touts Trump administration’s anti-abortion record at March for Life rally
J.D. Vance dips to 38%4%
Vance publicly praised the Trump administration’s achievements on abortion restrictions, reinforcing his conservative credentials and energizing his base, which contributed to a temporary market price stabilization.
Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Ron DeSantis plunges to 3%47%
Governor Ron DeSantis called a special legislative session in Florida to redraw congressional districts, aiming to strengthen Republican control ahead of the 2026 midterms. This move was part of a broader national redistricting battle influenced by a recent Supreme Court ruling, but DeSantis's political standing weakened, reflected in his market price plummeting from 50% to 3% in mid-2025 and remaining low.
Vance appears with influencer Jake Paul at women’s hockey game
J.D. Vance dips to 45%2%
The unusual pairing attracted viral attention, keeping Vance in the public conversation and supporting his market price.
Florida Rep. Byron Donalds announces 2026 gubernatorial bid with Trump endorsement
Donald Trump Jr. dips to 2%1%
Byron Donalds, a staunch Trump ally and U.S. Representative from Florida, announced his candidacy for governor in 2026 with President Donald Trump's endorsement, signaling Trump's influence in Florida politics and affecting the market perception of candidates like Donald Trump Jr. and Ron DeSantis.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance's Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
An attack on Vance's home brought media attention and sympathy, highlighting security concerns and possibly affecting public perception and market price.
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president
The appointment of a prominent Trump‑linked figure to a top tech role signaled continued influence of Trump‑aligned elites, indirectly benefiting Trump‑related candidates and contributing to the continued decline of Vance’s rivals.
Marco Rubio gains attention as part of U.S. Olympic delegation with Vance
Marco Rubio jumps to 22%8%
Marco Rubio’s inclusion alongside Vance in the U.S. delegation to the Winter Olympics increased his visibility and market price, benefiting from association with the vice president.
Vance leads U.S. delegation to Armenia and Azerbaijan peace talks
J.D. Vance dips to 47%2%
Vance’s diplomatic mission to the South Caucasus highlighted his foreign‑policy credentials, further bolstering his nomination prospects.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan
J.D. Vance drops to 42%5%
Vance’s prominent role at the Winter Olympics, including diplomatic and family appearances, enhanced his national profile and demonstrated leadership, supporting his candidacy perception.
JD Vance visits Leonardo’s Last Supper during Olympic stay in Milan
J.D. Vance dips to 49%2%
Vance’s VIP access to a cultural landmark during the Olympics generated additional media coverage, sustaining his upward price trend.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
An attack on Vance's home by a man wielding a hammer raised security concerns and drew public sympathy, slightly stabilizing his market price amid other pressures.
JD Vance and Jake Paul watch U.S. women’s hockey at Winter Olympics
J.D. Vance rises to 52%2%
Vance's public appearance with influencer Jake Paul at the Olympics attracted media attention, enhancing his visibility among younger voters and the broader public, slightly boosting his market position.
JD Vance booed by crowd at Milan Cortina Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance drops to 46%8%
Despite leading the delegation, Vance was booed by some spectators at the opening ceremony, reflecting polarized public opinion and causing some negative market reaction.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy
J.D. Vance rises to 50%4%
Vance led the American delegation at the Winter Olympics opening ceremony, raising his international profile and showcasing leadership on a global stage, which positively affected his market price.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance at Winter Olympics delegation
Marco Rubio jumps to 27%6%
Rubio’s inclusion in the Olympic delegation gave him a brief media boost, lifting his price from 21% to 27% by mid‑March.
Vice President JD Vance casts tiebreaking vote to kill Venezuela war powers resolution
Vance broke a 50-50 Senate tie to kill a resolution that would have restricted Trump's military actions in Venezuela, signaling strong party alignment and impacting perceptions of his influence.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance in U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 25%3%
Rubio’s inclusion in the high‑visibility Olympic delegation raised his national profile, coinciding with a sharp rise in his market price.
Vice President J.D. Vance casts tiebreaking Senate vote to kill Venezuela war powers resolution
J.D. Vance dips to 49%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance cast the deciding vote in the Senate to kill a resolution that would have limited President Trump's military actions in Venezuela, aligning with the administration's stance and reinforcing his political alignment with Trump. This action maintained Vance's prominence but did not significantly boost his market price, which began a gradual decline afterward.
JD Vance touts Trump’s anti‑abortion record at March for Life rally
J.D. Vance dips to 51%1%
Vance’s high‑profile appearance at the March for Life rally highlighted his alignment with core Republican voters, reinforcing his nomination momentum.
JD Vance says Insurrection Act not needed in Minneapolis amid immigration tensions
J.D. Vance dips to 52%3%
Vance visited Minneapolis amid immigration enforcement tensions, stating the Insurrection Act was not needed currently. His stance and defense of ICE agents amid protests highlighted his law-and-order credentials, influencing his market standing.
Vance announces pregnancy of fourth child
J.D. Vance dips to 47%3%
Vice President J.D. Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, reinforcing his public image as a pro-family leader.
Turning Point USA plans early support for JD Vance in key primary states
J.D. Vance rises to 55%3%
Following Erika Kirk's endorsement, Turning Point USA announced plans to support JD Vance in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire, reinforcing his campaign infrastructure and boosting market confidence.
Poll shows overwhelming Republican opposition to taking Greenland by force
Donald Trump dips to 2%2%
A bipartisan poll revealing that even most Republicans oppose a military takeover of Greenland undercut Donald Trump’s foreign‑policy agenda, contributing to a further decline in Trump‑related candidates’ market prices.
Republican National Committee adopts amendment to hold midterms convention
The RNC's decision to hold a midterms convention was seen as a strategic move to energize the party base and support candidates, indirectly affecting the presidential nomination landscape.
Vance’s pregnancy announcement revisited, boosting his personal appeal
J.D. Vance dips to 54%2%
A follow‑up social‑media post confirming the upcoming birth kept Vance in the news cycle, sustaining his market momentum during a period of relative price stability.
Suspect in vandalism of JD Vance’s home pleads not guilty in federal court
The suspect charged with vandalizing Vance’s home pleaded not guilty, prolonging legal proceedings and keeping the incident in public attention, which maintained market focus on Vance’s security and public image.
Vice President JD Vance touts Trump administration's anti-abortion record at March for Life
Vance highlighted the Trump administration's achievements on abortion restrictions, appealing to conservative voters and reinforcing his standing within the party.
Supreme Court hears Republican-led challenge to political spending limits including JD Vance
The Supreme Court heard a case challenging limits on political party spending, with Vice President JD Vance involved, raising speculation about his political ambitions and affecting market perceptions.
Marco Rubio outlines US strategy for Venezuela post-Maduro
Rubio clarified that the US would enforce an oil embargo and use leverage to press for policy changes in Venezuela, tempering concerns about direct governance and stabilizing his nomination odds.
Marco Rubio sees surge in nomination odds
Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%
Marco Rubio's profile rose as he took a central role in the Trump administration's foreign policy, particularly regarding Venezuela, boosting his standing as a potential successor.
Trump administration conducts military operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Marco Rubio jumps to 26%12%
President Donald Trump's administration executed a military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio playing a key role in briefing Congress and managing the foreign policy narrative. This event bolstered Rubio's profile, reflected in his market price rising from 14% to 26% in early 2026.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained by Secret Service
A security incident occurred when a man vandalized Vice President Vance's home, causing significant damage and leading to federal charges. This event highlighted security concerns but also elicited public sympathy for Vance, stabilizing his market position.
Vandalism incident at J.D. Vance's Ohio home
J.D. Vance dips to 50%2%
A man was detained after breaking windows at the Vice President's home, an event that kept Vance in the news cycle during a period of political jockeying.
US military operation captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%7%
The Trump administration, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and supported by Vice President JD Vance, conducted a military operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, boosting Rubio's profile and impacting the nomination market.
Vance says Insurrection Act not needed in Minneapolis amid immigration crackdown
J.D. Vance dips to 51%2%
Vance’s public statement downplaying the need for the Insurrection Act kept him in the news while reinforcing his law‑and‑order image, causing a slight dip in his price.
Turning Point USA CEO Erika Kirk endorses J.D. Vance for 2028
J.D. Vance rises to 55%2%
Erika Kirk's public endorsement of J.D. Vance at the AmericaFest convention solidified his position as the frontrunner for the 2028 nomination among key conservative grassroots networks.
Vice President J.D. Vance addresses conservative discord at Turning Point USA conference
J.D. Vance dips to 52%2%
At the Turning Point USA AmericaFest conference, Vice President J.D. Vance emphasized inclusivity within the conservative movement and declined to condemn antisemitism, aiming to unify the party amid internal conflicts. This event highlighted the challenges Vance faces in consolidating support, contributing to a gradual decline in his market price from late 2025 into early 2026.
Turning Point USA endorses J.D. Vance for 2028
J.D. Vance dips to 53%3%
Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, officially endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 presidential nomination, solidifying his position as the movement's preferred candidate.
Vice President JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid antisemitism debate
Vance publicly condemned attacks on his wife by far-right figures, including Nick Fuentes, signaling his stance against bigotry within the party and affecting his support among conservatives.
JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife by far-right figures
J.D. Vance rises to 54%1%
Vance publicly denounced racist attacks on his wife by far-right podcaster Nick Fuentes and others, asserting a strong personal stance that resonated with moderate conservatives and helped maintain his support.
JD Vance defends his wife amid racist attacks, strengthening his public image
Vice President JD Vance publicly condemned racist attacks against his wife, Usha Vance, including those by far-right podcaster Nick Fuentes, asserting a strong protective stance that resonated with supporters and helped stabilize his nomination odds.
Supreme Court hears Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits
Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%
The Supreme Court’s hearing of a case that includes JD Vance raised speculation about future fundraising rules, benefiting candidates perceived as aligned with the party’s legal strategy and giving a modest boost to Marco Rubio’s odds.
JD Vance posts then deletes reference to Armenian genocide during diplomatic visit
J.D. Vance dips to 52%2%
Vance’s social‑media post about the Armenian genocide was quickly removed after criticism, generating a brief controversy that modestly affected his market perception.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home and is detained
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
A man vandalized Vice President JD Vance's home in Ohio, causing significant damage and leading to his detention. The incident brought media attention to Vance's personal security and public profile, slightly impacting his market perception.
Vice President JD Vance announces expecting fourth child
J.D. Vance rises to 54%1%
Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, highlighting his family-oriented image which aligns with his political messaging on family values, positively influencing his market perception.
Vance’s family appears at Milan hockey game, drawing media attention
J.D. Vance rises to 56%3%
Vance’s public appearance with his family at a U.S. women’s hockey game during the Olympics generated positive coverage and reinforced his image as a family‑oriented leader, contributing to a modest price increase.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance amid conservative party tensions
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, endorsed JD Vance as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting his market price.
Vice President JD Vance condemns attacks on his wife amid racist backlash
Vance strongly defended his wife Usha Vance against racist attacks, including those by right-wing podcaster Nick Fuentes, reinforcing his personal and political resolve, which helped maintain his market support.
Vance’s positive remarks at March for Life rally reinforce pro‑life credentials
J.D. Vance dips to 53%3%
Vance’s speech at the March for Life rally highlighted his alignment with Trump’s anti‑abortion legacy, reinforcing support among socially conservative voters and stabilizing his market price.
JD Vance criticizes Israel's parliament vote on West Bank annexation
JD Vance publicly criticized a controversial vote in Israel's parliament, demonstrating his engagement in foreign policy issues and maintaining his visibility in national politics, supporting his sustained market interest.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a potential successor to Donald Trump, providing him with significant volunteer support and boosting his nomination odds from 29% to over 50%.
Marco Rubio joins JD Vance at Olympic delegation, boosting Rubio’s profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 25%11%
Rubio’s inclusion in the high‑profile Olympic delegation gave him a visibility boost, coinciding with a sharp rise in his market price from 14 % to 25 % by mid‑May 2026.
JD Vance announces fourth child due in July 2026
J.D. Vance dips to 51%3%
Vance’s personal family news generated positive media coverage and human‑interest appeal, nudging his price upward from 54% to 51% as voters perceived him as family‑oriented.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
J.D. Vance rises to 56%3%
Vance’s role as head of the U.S. Olympic delegation raised his international profile and reinforced his image as a unifying figure, supporting a continued upward trend in his market price.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child is on the way
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
Vance’s personal announcement of a fourth child generated positive media coverage and humanized the candidate, contributing to a modest rise in his market price later in August.
Turning Point USA backs JD Vance for 2028 presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA publicly endorsed JD Vance for the 2028 presidential nomination, promising early ground operations in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. The endorsement was covered by national media and raised Vance’s visibility, pushing his market price from 29 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 55 % on 2025‑08‑02.
Ron DeSantis drops out of 2028 race after poor fundraising reports
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Reports of DeSantis’s weak fundraising and lack of endorsements caused his market price to plunge from 50% to the single digits, reflecting diminished confidence among Republican voters.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, Secret Service detains suspect
J.D. Vance drops to 46%9%
A vandalism incident at Vance’s residence drew national attention and raised security concerns, contributing to a dip in his market price from 55% back toward the mid‑40s as voters questioned his safety and focus.
Donald Trump defers 2028 talk, backs JD Vance’s family news
Donald Trump drops to 3%12%
Former President Donald Trump issued a brief statement supporting JD Vance’s family and downplaying his own 2028 ambitions, shifting media focus away from himself and resulting in his market price dropping from 15 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 3 % on 2025‑08‑02.
JD Vance’s market price spikes to 55% after Turning Point endorsement
Following the endorsement, Vance’s price peaked at 55% on August 31, reflecting increased confidence among bettors that he will secure the nomination.
JD Vance’s poll surge follows Turning Point endorsement
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Following the Turning Point endorsement, Vance’s market price jumped from 29 % to 55 % on August 2, reflecting a surge in voter confidence and media attention.
Donald Trump Jr. criticizes JD Vance’s family news as political stunt
Donald Trump Jr. plunges to 3%32%
Following JD Vance’s pregnancy announcement, Donald Trump Jr. made a dismissive comment on social media suggesting the Vance family’s growing children were a political stunt. The remark prompted negative press for Trump Jr., contributing to a decline in his market price from 35 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 3 % on 2025‑08‑02.
Man breaks windows at JD Vance’s Ohio home, detained by Secret Service
J.D. Vance dips to 53%2%
A vandalism incident at Vance’s residence attracted national media attention and raised security concerns, leading to a modest decline in his market price as voters questioned his personal safety and public image.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
At the AmericaFest convention, Turning Point leader Erika Kirk publicly backed Vice President JD Vance, signaling grassroots support and raising his profile among primary voters, which coincided with a jump from 29% to 55% in his market price.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance at AmericaFest convention
J.D. Vance rises to 59%4%
Turning Point USA’s annual AmericaFest convention featured a closing speech by Vice President JD Vance and an explicit endorsement from leader Erika Kirk, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting Vance’s nomination prospects.
Tucker Carlson slams JD Vance’s pregnancy announcement on Fox News
Tucker Carlson rises to 6%1%
A one‑hour interview on Fox News where Tucker Carlson criticized the Vance family’s pregnancy news as a political distraction led to a slight uptick in his market price from 5 % to 6 % by mid‑May 2026, reflecting modest attention among his audience.
Governor Ron DeSantis says he will not pursue 2028 presidential bid
Ron DeSantis plunges to 4%46%
Governor Ron DeSantis publicly dismissed the idea of a 2028 run, focusing instead on his 2026 gubernatorial campaign. The statement was widely covered and caused his market price to plunge from 50 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 4 % on 2025‑08‑02.
Turning Point USA backs JD Vance at AmericaFest convention
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA’s annual AmericaFest convention featured a closing speech by Vice President JD Vance and an endorsement from leader Erika Kirk, signaling strong grassroots support and raising Vance’s visibility among primary voters.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA announced it will back Vice President JD Vance in early primary states, signaling strong grassroots support and boosting his visibility among Republican voters, which drove his market price up sharply in late July.
Vivek Ramaswamy says he will not run for president in 2028
Vivek Ramaswamy plunges to 1%17%
Vivek Ramaswamy publicly dismissed any 2028 presidential ambitions, emphasizing his focus on business ventures. The announcement coincided with a decline in his market price from 18 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 1 % by the end of the window.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance as potential 2028 Republican nominee
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a potential successor to President Trump, boosting Vance's profile and market price significantly.
Early Republican field sees major shifts in nomination prospects
Initial market sentiment saw a sharp decline for Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, and Donald Trump Jr., while J.D. Vance began to emerge as a primary contender.
Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., and Glenn Youngkin see sharp declines in nomination odds
Following initial market volatility, major contenders like Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., and Glenn Youngkin experienced a significant drop in their perceived chances of securing the 2028 nomination.
Turning Point USA endorses Vice President J.D. Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative organization, publicly endorsed Vice President J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, signaling strong grassroots and organizational support. This endorsement coincided with a sharp rise in Vance's market price from 29% to 55% in late July 2025, reflecting increased confidence in his candidacy.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 Republican presidential nomination
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president in 2028 and began organizing grassroots support in key early primary states, significantly boosting Vance's market price from 29% to 55%.
JD Vance announces new Medicaid fraud deferral targeting California
J.D. Vance surges to 55%26%
Vice President JD Vance announced a $1.3 billion deferral in Medicaid funding to California over suspected fraud, highlighting his anti-fraud task force's efforts. This high-profile initiative increased confidence in Vance's leadership and boosted his market price from 29% to 55%.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin rules out 2028 presidential run
Glenn Youngkin plunges to 1%49%
Governor Glenn Youngkin announced he would not enter the 2028 presidential race, diverting Republican attention to other candidates and causing his market price to tumble from 50 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 1 % by the end of the analysis window.
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