The market-implied 84.5% probability of no change at the Reserve Bank of Australia's August 11 cash rate decision reflects the central bank's unanimous June 16 hold at 4.35% and recent data showing headline CPI easing to 4.2% year-over-year in April from 4.6% in March, alongside a softening labor market. Traders appear to price in a cautious stance as prior hikes transmit through the economy, with activity indicators pointing to slower demand despite underlying inflation measures like the trimmed mean remaining elevated near 3.4%. The RBA's May Statement on Monetary Policy highlighted risks of persistent pressures from fuel and commodity costs, yet futures pricing and consensus forecasts emphasize waiting for June CPI and other releases before any 25 basis point adjustment. This setup leaves limited room for near-term shifts absent stronger inflation surprises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 87%
25 bps increase 8%
25 bps decrease 3.7%
50+ bps increase <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
11 ago 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
87%
25 bps increase
8%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 87%
25 bps increase 8%
25 bps decrease 3.7%
50+ bps increase <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
11 ago 2026
50+ bps decrease
$467 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$438 Vol.
4%
No change
$804 Vol.
87%
25 bps increase
$1,824 Vol.
8%
50+ bps increase
$319 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The market-implied 84.5% probability of no change at the Reserve Bank of Australia's August 11 cash rate decision reflects the central bank's unanimous June 16 hold at 4.35% and recent data showing headline CPI easing to 4.2% year-over-year in April from 4.6% in March, alongside a softening labor market. Traders appear to price in a cautious stance as prior hikes transmit through the economy, with activity indicators pointing to slower demand despite underlying inflation measures like the trimmed mean remaining elevated near 3.4%. The RBA's May Statement on Monetary Policy highlighted risks of persistent pressures from fuel and commodity costs, yet futures pricing and consensus forecasts emphasize waiting for June CPI and other releases before any 25 basis point adjustment. This setup leaves limited room for near-term shifts absent stronger inflation surprises.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 9:08 PM ET
Volumen
$3,852Fecha de finalización
11 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 9:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The market-implied 84.5% probability of no change at the Reserve Bank of Australia's August 11 cash rate decision reflects the central bank's unanimous June 16 hold at 4.35% and recent data showing headline CPI easing to 4.2% year-over-year in April from 4.6% in March, alongside a softening labor market. Traders appear to price in a cautious stance as prior hikes transmit through the economy, with activity indicators pointing to slower demand despite underlying inflation measures like the trimmed mean remaining elevated near 3.4%. The RBA's May Statement on Monetary Policy highlighted risks of persistent pressures from fuel and commodity costs, yet futures pricing and consensus forecasts emphasize waiting for June CPI and other releases before any 25 basis point adjustment. This setup leaves limited room for near-term shifts absent stronger inflation surprises.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,852Fecha de finalización
11 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 9:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied 84.5% probability of no change at the Reserve Bank of Australia's August 11 cash rate decision reflects the central bank's unanimous June 16 hold at 4.35% and recent data showing headline CPI easing to 4.2% year-over-year in April from 4.6% in March, alongside a softening labor market. Traders appear to price in a cautious stance as prior hikes transmit through the economy, with activity indicators pointing to slower demand despite underlying inflation measures like the trimmed mean remaining elevated near 3.4%. The RBA's May Statement on Monetary Policy highlighted risks of persistent pressures from fuel and commodity costs, yet futures pricing and consensus forecasts emphasize waiting for June CPI and other releases before any 25 basis point adjustment. This setup leaves limited room for near-term shifts absent stronger inflation surprises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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