Strong critical reception, with a 95% Rotten Tomatoes score and positive audience metrics, has fueled solid word-of-mouth for Zach Cregger’s R-rated reboot, helping it deliver a franchise-record $60 million domestic opening and hold at roughly $23 million in its second weekend before a 46% third-weekend drop to $12.5 million. Traders see this trajectory and typical horror hold patterns pointing to a 4th-weekend gross in the $7 million-plus range as the consensus outcome, supported by the film’s cumulative domestic total nearing $125 million and limited new competition. China’s recent $20 million-plus debut adds international momentum but has little direct bearing on the U.S. market, where late October releases and seasonal audience shifts remain key swing factors.