Despite early 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security and European intelligence assessments highlighting coup or drone assassination risks tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu, no verified attempt has occurred. Vladimir Putin retains control over military and security structures, with public appearances and elite dynamics showing continuity rather than fracture. Rumors peaked in March-May but produced no elite defections, military mobilizations, or institutional challenges, aligning with historical patterns where internal dissent faces swift suppression. Traders price the low odds on the absence of follow-through developments through mid-August, viewing the regime's centralized power and ongoing Ukraine conflict management as stabilizing factors that reduce near-term coup likelihood.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado7% probabilidad
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
31 dic 2026
7% probabilidad
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite early 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security and European intelligence assessments highlighting coup or drone assassination risks tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu, no verified attempt has occurred. Vladimir Putin retains control over military and security structures, with public appearances and elite dynamics showing continuity rather than fracture. Rumors peaked in March-May but produced no elite defections, military mobilizations, or institutional challenges, aligning with historical patterns where internal dissent faces swift suppression. Traders price the low odds on the absence of follow-through developments through mid-August, viewing the regime's centralized power and ongoing Ukraine conflict management as stabilizing factors that reduce near-term coup likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volumen
$118,354Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite early 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security and European intelligence assessments highlighting coup or drone assassination risks tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu, no verified attempt has occurred. Vladimir Putin retains control over military and security structures, with public appearances and elite dynamics showing continuity rather than fracture. Rumors peaked in March-May but produced no elite defections, military mobilizations, or institutional challenges, aligning with historical patterns where internal dissent faces swift suppression. Traders price the low odds on the absence of follow-through developments through mid-August, viewing the regime's centralized power and ongoing Ukraine conflict management as stabilizing factors that reduce near-term coup likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$118,354Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite early 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security and European intelligence assessments highlighting coup or drone assassination risks tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu, no verified attempt has occurred. Vladimir Putin retains control over military and security structures, with public appearances and elite dynamics showing continuity rather than fracture. Rumors peaked in March-May but produced no elite defections, military mobilizations, or institutional challenges, aligning with historical patterns where internal dissent faces swift suppression. Traders price the low odds on the absence of follow-through developments through mid-August, viewing the regime's centralized power and ongoing Ukraine conflict management as stabilizing factors that reduce near-term coup likelihood.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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