Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin remains highly centralized, with power concentrated through loyal security services, the military high command, and United Russia structures that have suppressed organized opposition. Reports from March through May 2026 noted tightened Kremlin security protocols and reduced public appearances amid unnamed European intelligence assessments citing coup or drone-related assassination risks, including references to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu's lingering military influence. However, no verified elite defections, military unrest, or attempts materialized by mid-August. Traders assign a low implied probability to a 2026 coup attempt because historical patterns of regime resilience, wartime cohesion, and institutional controls have prevented such challenges from advancing, despite episodic speculation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado7% probabilidad
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
31 dic 2026
7% probabilidad
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin remains highly centralized, with power concentrated through loyal security services, the military high command, and United Russia structures that have suppressed organized opposition. Reports from March through May 2026 noted tightened Kremlin security protocols and reduced public appearances amid unnamed European intelligence assessments citing coup or drone-related assassination risks, including references to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu's lingering military influence. However, no verified elite defections, military unrest, or attempts materialized by mid-August. Traders assign a low implied probability to a 2026 coup attempt because historical patterns of regime resilience, wartime cohesion, and institutional controls have prevented such challenges from advancing, despite episodic speculation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volumen
$118,354Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin remains highly centralized, with power concentrated through loyal security services, the military high command, and United Russia structures that have suppressed organized opposition. Reports from March through May 2026 noted tightened Kremlin security protocols and reduced public appearances amid unnamed European intelligence assessments citing coup or drone-related assassination risks, including references to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu's lingering military influence. However, no verified elite defections, military unrest, or attempts materialized by mid-August. Traders assign a low implied probability to a 2026 coup attempt because historical patterns of regime resilience, wartime cohesion, and institutional controls have prevented such challenges from advancing, despite episodic speculation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$118,354Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin remains highly centralized, with power concentrated through loyal security services, the military high command, and United Russia structures that have suppressed organized opposition. Reports from March through May 2026 noted tightened Kremlin security protocols and reduced public appearances amid unnamed European intelligence assessments citing coup or drone-related assassination risks, including references to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu's lingering military influence. However, no verified elite defections, military unrest, or attempts materialized by mid-August. Traders assign a low implied probability to a 2026 coup attempt because historical patterns of regime resilience, wartime cohesion, and institutional controls have prevented such challenges from advancing, despite episodic speculation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes