South Dakota's Constitutional Amendment J, a legislatively referred measure on the November 3, 2026 ballot, explicitly disqualifies noncitizens from voting in state elections and on ballot questions. The high "Yes" probability stems from its referral by the Republican-controlled legislature, alignment with existing citizenship requirements in the state constitution, and recent incidents of accidental noncitizen registrations uncovered by officials. Similar measures have passed in other states amid broader focus on voter eligibility verification. Traders view passage as near-certain given South Dakota's political composition and modest organized opposition. Late developments such as unusually low turnout, a sudden surge in counter-campaigning, or pre-election legal challenges could still shift the outcome, though none appear imminent.