The federal criminal case against the Southern Poverty Law Center in the Middle District of Alabama remains ongoing without a conviction as of mid-October 2026. The organization was indicted in April on eleven counts of wire fraud, false statements to a bank, and money-laundering conspiracy tied to payments to informants in extremist groups; a superseding indictment followed in June. The SPLC entered not guilty pleas, its motion to dismiss on vindictive-prosecution grounds was denied in August, and jury selection and trial began around October 5. With only weeks left before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, traders assign an 85 percent probability to “No” because a final judgment of guilt is improbable within the narrow window. Criminal proceedings routinely involve evidentiary hearings, potential plea arrangements without admission of guilt, further motions, or adjournments that would leave the market unresolved in favor of “No.”