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¿Vacante del Tribunal Supremo en 2026?

icon for ¿Vacante del Tribunal Supremo en 2026?

¿Vacante del Tribunal Supremo en 2026?

21% probabilidad
Polymarket

$19,031 Vol.

21% probabilidad
Polymarket

$19,031 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **No U.S. Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026, as reflected in the 79.5% trader probability on “No.”** The court’s two oldest justices—Clarence Thomas (age 78) and Samuel Alito (age 76)—have made no retirement announcements and continue to serve without reported health issues that would prompt departure. In early August 2026, Alito directly addressed speculation by stating he intends to serve another term. Thomas has previously signaled a preference for remaining on the bench. Younger justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor (both 71), show no signs of stepping down. Earlier 2026 discussion of strategic timing ahead of midterms produced no confirmed actions or vacancies, leaving the current nine-justice composition intact through the calendar year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$19,031
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **No U.S. Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026, as reflected in the 79.5% trader probability on “No.”** The court’s two oldest justices—Clarence Thomas (age 78) and Samuel Alito (age 76)—have made no retirement announcements and continue to serve without reported health issues that would prompt departure. In early August 2026, Alito directly addressed speculation by stating he intends to serve another term. Thomas has previously signaled a preference for remaining on the bench. Younger justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor (both 71), show no signs of stepping down. Earlier 2026 discussion of strategic timing ahead of midterms produced no confirmed actions or vacancies, leaving the current nine-justice composition intact through the calendar year.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$19,031
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Vacante del Tribunal Supremo en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Vacante en la Corte Suprema en 2026?" con 21%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 21¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 21% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Vacante del Tribunal Supremo en 2026?" ha generado $19K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 15, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Vacante del Tribunal Supremo en 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Vacante del Tribunal Supremo en 2026?" es "¿Vacante en la Corte Suprema en 2026?" con 21%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 21% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Vacante del Tribunal Supremo en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.