Incumbent Chang San-cheng maintains a commanding lead in the Taoyuan mayoral race due to his record on infrastructure, transportation upgrades, and local governance as the KMT candidate seeking re-election. Recent surveys show him narrowly ahead in direct support at 36.9% versus Huang Shih-chieh's 32.8%, yet far ahead in perceived win probability at 56.4% to 14.8%, with vote-share projections favoring him by 7-15 points depending on turnout. Huang, the DPP nominee, has focused on responsive local services and regional coordination with other northern candidates, but faces structural headwinds in a city with established KMT advantages. The November 28 election remains the key resolution trigger, and late shifts in mobilization or undecided voters could still influence the final margin.