Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360 needed to trigger a constitutional referendum or the 400 required for direct parliamentary amendment. Preparatory work by a presidential commission and party experts has continued since mid-2025, including draft submissions and consultations, yet cross-party negotiations remain stalled amid opposition resistance and public polling against changes that could affect term limits. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has projected possible progress in the 2026-2027 window, but competing legislative priorities and the absence of broad consensus have kept formal advancement off the immediate agenda. Traders price the low probability of an official referendum announcement by year-end accordingly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
9% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
9% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360 needed to trigger a constitutional referendum or the 400 required for direct parliamentary amendment. Preparatory work by a presidential commission and party experts has continued since mid-2025, including draft submissions and consultations, yet cross-party negotiations remain stalled amid opposition resistance and public polling against changes that could affect term limits. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has projected possible progress in the 2026-2027 window, but competing legislative priorities and the absence of broad consensus have kept formal advancement off the immediate agenda. Traders price the low probability of an official referendum announcement by year-end accordingly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$6,250Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360 needed to trigger a constitutional referendum or the 400 required for direct parliamentary amendment. Preparatory work by a presidential commission and party experts has continued since mid-2025, including draft submissions and consultations, yet cross-party negotiations remain stalled amid opposition resistance and public polling against changes that could affect term limits. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has projected possible progress in the 2026-2027 window, but competing legislative priorities and the absence of broad consensus have kept formal advancement off the immediate agenda. Traders price the low probability of an official referendum announcement by year-end accordingly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$6,250Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament, short of the 360 needed to trigger a constitutional referendum or the 400 required for direct parliamentary amendment. Preparatory work by a presidential commission and party experts has continued since mid-2025, including draft submissions and consultations, yet cross-party negotiations remain stalled amid opposition resistance and public polling against changes that could affect term limits. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has projected possible progress in the 2026-2027 window, but competing legislative priorities and the absence of broad consensus have kept formal advancement off the immediate agenda. Traders price the low probability of an official referendum announcement by year-end accordingly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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