President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have sustained public advocacy for a new “civilian constitution,” including the 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and renewed calls through mid-2026. However, advancing any referendum or parliamentary passage requires at least 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly for a public vote or 400 votes to bypass one—thresholds the ruling coalition has not reached despite modest seat gains and outreach tied to the PKK peace process. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism for progress in 2026–2027, yet the absence of broader cross-party backing leaves formal steps unlikely before year-end, aligning with trader pricing that places only an 18% chance on a referendum announcement by December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
18% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
18% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have sustained public advocacy for a new “civilian constitution,” including the 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and renewed calls through mid-2026. However, advancing any referendum or parliamentary passage requires at least 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly for a public vote or 400 votes to bypass one—thresholds the ruling coalition has not reached despite modest seat gains and outreach tied to the PKK peace process. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism for progress in 2026–2027, yet the absence of broader cross-party backing leaves formal steps unlikely before year-end, aligning with trader pricing that places only an 18% chance on a referendum announcement by December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$6,170Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have sustained public advocacy for a new “civilian constitution,” including the 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and renewed calls through mid-2026. However, advancing any referendum or parliamentary passage requires at least 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly for a public vote or 400 votes to bypass one—thresholds the ruling coalition has not reached despite modest seat gains and outreach tied to the PKK peace process. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism for progress in 2026–2027, yet the absence of broader cross-party backing leaves formal steps unlikely before year-end, aligning with trader pricing that places only an 18% chance on a referendum announcement by December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$6,170Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP have sustained public advocacy for a new “civilian constitution,” including the 2025 appointment of a legal drafting commission and renewed calls through mid-2026. However, advancing any referendum or parliamentary passage requires at least 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly for a public vote or 400 votes to bypass one—thresholds the ruling coalition has not reached despite modest seat gains and outreach tied to the PKK peace process. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism for progress in 2026–2027, yet the absence of broader cross-party backing leaves formal steps unlikely before year-end, aligning with trader pricing that places only an 18% chance on a referendum announcement by December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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