SpaceX is advancing Starship's orbital refueling capability through hardware upgrades on Version 3 vehicles, including androgynous docking ports, drogues, and propellant transfer connections essential for linking two Starships in low Earth orbit. Block 3 prototypes now incorporate these systems, with recent flight tests and ground preparations positioning the company to attempt a full-scale cryogenic propellant transfer demonstration targeted for 2026. This milestone directly supports NASA's Artemis lunar lander requirements and longer-term Mars ambitions, though timelines remain aggressive amid ongoing iterative testing and regulatory approvals. Traders should monitor upcoming V3 launches, pad upgrades, and any official announcements on demonstration flight manifests, as delays in achieving reliable rendezvous and docking could shift market-implied odds on near-term resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$12,108 Vol.
31 dic 2026
December 31, 2026?
32%
December 31, 2027?
53%
$12,108 Vol.
December 31, 2026?
$12,092 Vol.
32%
December 31, 2027?
$16 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX is advancing Starship's orbital refueling capability through hardware upgrades on Version 3 vehicles, including androgynous docking ports, drogues, and propellant transfer connections essential for linking two Starships in low Earth orbit. Block 3 prototypes now incorporate these systems, with recent flight tests and ground preparations positioning the company to attempt a full-scale cryogenic propellant transfer demonstration targeted for 2026. This milestone directly supports NASA's Artemis lunar lander requirements and longer-term Mars ambitions, though timelines remain aggressive amid ongoing iterative testing and regulatory approvals. Traders should monitor upcoming V3 launches, pad upgrades, and any official announcements on demonstration flight manifests, as delays in achieving reliable rendezvous and docking could shift market-implied odds on near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volumen
$12,108Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2028Mercado abierto
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX is advancing Starship's orbital refueling capability through hardware upgrades on Version 3 vehicles, including androgynous docking ports, drogues, and propellant transfer connections essential for linking two Starships in low Earth orbit. Block 3 prototypes now incorporate these systems, with recent flight tests and ground preparations positioning the company to attempt a full-scale cryogenic propellant transfer demonstration targeted for 2026. This milestone directly supports NASA's Artemis lunar lander requirements and longer-term Mars ambitions, though timelines remain aggressive amid ongoing iterative testing and regulatory approvals. Traders should monitor upcoming V3 launches, pad upgrades, and any official announcements on demonstration flight manifests, as delays in achieving reliable rendezvous and docking could shift market-implied odds on near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$12,108Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2028Mercado abierto
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX is advancing Starship's orbital refueling capability through hardware upgrades on Version 3 vehicles, including androgynous docking ports, drogues, and propellant transfer connections essential for linking two Starships in low Earth orbit. Block 3 prototypes now incorporate these systems, with recent flight tests and ground preparations positioning the company to attempt a full-scale cryogenic propellant transfer demonstration targeted for 2026. This milestone directly supports NASA's Artemis lunar lander requirements and longer-term Mars ambitions, though timelines remain aggressive amid ongoing iterative testing and regulatory approvals. Traders should monitor upcoming V3 launches, pad upgrades, and any official announcements on demonstration flight manifests, as delays in achieving reliable rendezvous and docking could shift market-implied odds on near-term resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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