**US opposition to monetizing the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant factor keeping trader-implied probabilities low for the US charging any transit fees, tolls, or security reimbursements by December 31, 2026.** The administration has repeatedly affirmed free passage principles under international maritime law for this critical chokepoint, rejecting any charges regardless of framing as tolls, service fees, or protection costs. A brief mid-July 2026 proposal by President Trump for a 20% cargo reimbursement tied to a US “guardian” role was quickly deprioritized in favor of Gulf investment arrangements. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and naval activity through September 2026 have not produced any implementing steps, regulatory framework, or official announcements indicating a shift toward collection. Negotiations involving Oman and regional actors continue to focus on security arrangements without US-led charging mechanisms, and historical precedent plus current policy signals limit near-term reversal scenarios absent major diplomatic or conflict developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$983,541 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de diciembre
6%
$983,541 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$115,237 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.**US opposition to monetizing the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant factor keeping trader-implied probabilities low for the US charging any transit fees, tolls, or security reimbursements by December 31, 2026.**
The administration has repeatedly affirmed free passage principles under international maritime law for this critical chokepoint, rejecting any charges regardless of framing as tolls, service fees, or protection costs. A brief mid-July 2026 proposal by President Trump for a 20% cargo reimbursement tied to a US “guardian” role was quickly deprioritized in favor of Gulf investment arrangements. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and naval activity through September 2026 have not produced any implementing steps, regulatory framework, or official announcements indicating a shift toward collection. Negotiations involving Oman and regional actors continue to focus on security arrangements without US-led charging mechanisms, and historical precedent plus current policy signals limit near-term reversal scenarios absent major diplomatic or conflict developments.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volumen
$983,541Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.**US opposition to monetizing the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant factor keeping trader-implied probabilities low for the US charging any transit fees, tolls, or security reimbursements by December 31, 2026.**
The administration has repeatedly affirmed free passage principles under international maritime law for this critical chokepoint, rejecting any charges regardless of framing as tolls, service fees, or protection costs. A brief mid-July 2026 proposal by President Trump for a 20% cargo reimbursement tied to a US “guardian” role was quickly deprioritized in favor of Gulf investment arrangements. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and naval activity through September 2026 have not produced any implementing steps, regulatory framework, or official announcements indicating a shift toward collection. Negotiations involving Oman and regional actors continue to focus on security arrangements without US-led charging mechanisms, and historical precedent plus current policy signals limit near-term reversal scenarios absent major diplomatic or conflict developments.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$983,541Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US opposition to monetizing the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant factor keeping trader-implied probabilities low for the US charging any transit fees, tolls, or security reimbursements by December 31, 2026.** The administration has repeatedly affirmed free passage principles under international maritime law for this critical chokepoint, rejecting any charges regardless of framing as tolls, service fees, or protection costs. A brief mid-July 2026 proposal by President Trump for a 20% cargo reimbursement tied to a US “guardian” role was quickly deprioritized in favor of Gulf investment arrangements. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and naval activity through September 2026 have not produced any implementing steps, regulatory framework, or official announcements indicating a shift toward collection. Negotiations involving Oman and regional actors continue to focus on security arrangements without US-led charging mechanisms, and historical precedent plus current policy signals limit near-term reversal scenarios absent major diplomatic or conflict developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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