The 79% implied probability favoring no federal charges against Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel stems primarily from the absence of any Department of Justice indictments or formal criminal proceedings against the sitting head of state. Recent U.S. actions have instead centered on preparing an indictment against former leader Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, while expanding sanctions on Cuban officials for human rights violations. These measures, including prior designations against Díaz-Canel, reflect policy pressure without extending to criminal prosecution of the current president. Jurisdictional barriers for charging foreign heads of government and the lack of DOJ signaling through mid-May 2026 have reinforced trader consensus that no indictment will occur before the June 30, 2026 resolution date.