**President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with rivals has not produced an explosive test, keeping implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear test by late 2026 below 5% across Polymarket outcomes.** The United States has observed its 1992 testing moratorium, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness plans require 24–36 months to restore underground explosive capability at the Nevada National Security Site, including major site preparation, personnel reallocation, and budget shifts away from stockpile stewardship. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 removed one arms-control constraint, yet no dedicated funding surge or activation of full-yield test infrastructure has occurred. Officials have referenced concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including alleged subcritical experiments, but statements from the administration and NNSA have emphasized non-explosive or subcritical work. Absent escalation or new congressional appropriations, these technical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles continue to shape trader consensus that near-term explosive testing remains unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$770,068 Vol.
30 dic 2026
30 de septiembre de 2026
1%
31 de diciembre de 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
30 de septiembre de 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with rivals has not produced an explosive test, keeping implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear test by late 2026 below 5% across Polymarket outcomes.** The United States has observed its 1992 testing moratorium, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness plans require 24–36 months to restore underground explosive capability at the Nevada National Security Site, including major site preparation, personnel reallocation, and budget shifts away from stockpile stewardship. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 removed one arms-control constraint, yet no dedicated funding surge or activation of full-yield test infrastructure has occurred. Officials have referenced concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including alleged subcritical experiments, but statements from the administration and NNSA have emphasized non-explosive or subcritical work. Absent escalation or new congressional appropriations, these technical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles continue to shape trader consensus that near-term explosive testing remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$770,068Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with rivals has not produced an explosive test, keeping implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear test by late 2026 below 5% across Polymarket outcomes.** The United States has observed its 1992 testing moratorium, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness plans require 24–36 months to restore underground explosive capability at the Nevada National Security Site, including major site preparation, personnel reallocation, and budget shifts away from stockpile stewardship. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 removed one arms-control constraint, yet no dedicated funding surge or activation of full-yield test infrastructure has occurred. Officials have referenced concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including alleged subcritical experiments, but statements from the administration and NNSA have emphasized non-explosive or subcritical work. Absent escalation or new congressional appropriations, these technical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles continue to shape trader consensus that near-term explosive testing remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$770,068Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with rivals has not produced an explosive test, keeping implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear test by late 2026 below 5% across Polymarket outcomes.** The United States has observed its 1992 testing moratorium, and National Nuclear Security Administration readiness plans require 24–36 months to restore underground explosive capability at the Nevada National Security Site, including major site preparation, personnel reallocation, and budget shifts away from stockpile stewardship. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 removed one arms-control constraint, yet no dedicated funding surge or activation of full-yield test infrastructure has occurred. Officials have referenced concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including alleged subcritical experiments, but statements from the administration and NNSA have emphasized non-explosive or subcritical work. Absent escalation or new congressional appropriations, these technical, budgetary, and diplomatic hurdles continue to shape trader consensus that near-term explosive testing remains unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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