Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the US goods and services trade deficit for full-year 2026 at 800–900 billion dollars (47.5%) as most likely, closely trailed by 900 billion–1 trillion (36.5%), reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data released May 5 showing the March gap widening to $60.3 billion—up 4.4% from February—driven by an 11% surge in motor vehicle imports and strong consumer goods demand outpacing export growth. Trailing 12-month deficit stands at $700 billion after narrower Q1 figures, but historical seasonality, robust domestic spending, and large fiscal deficits (CBO projects $1.9 trillion for FY2026) support expectations of expansion; Trump administration tariffs have increased duties collected to $20 billion monthly yet yielded persistent goods imbalances amid retaliation risks, with April data pending early June release potentially shifting probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$20,974 Vol.
$20,974 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
7%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
5%
700–800B
11%
800–900 mil millones
44%
900 mil millones–1 billón
36%
1T–1,1T
9%
1,1 billones+
5%
$20,974 Vol.
$20,974 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,636 Vol.
7%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800B
$455 Vol.
11%
800–900 mil millones
$1,008 Vol.
44%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$961 Vol.
36%
1T–1,1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1,1 billones+
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the US goods and services trade deficit for full-year 2026 at 800–900 billion dollars (47.5%) as most likely, closely trailed by 900 billion–1 trillion (36.5%), reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data released May 5 showing the March gap widening to $60.3 billion—up 4.4% from February—driven by an 11% surge in motor vehicle imports and strong consumer goods demand outpacing export growth. Trailing 12-month deficit stands at $700 billion after narrower Q1 figures, but historical seasonality, robust domestic spending, and large fiscal deficits (CBO projects $1.9 trillion for FY2026) support expectations of expansion; Trump administration tariffs have increased duties collected to $20 billion monthly yet yielded persistent goods imbalances amid retaliation risks, with April data pending early June release potentially shifting probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$20,974Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the US goods and services trade deficit for full-year 2026 at 800–900 billion dollars (47.5%) as most likely, closely trailed by 900 billion–1 trillion (36.5%), reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data released May 5 showing the March gap widening to $60.3 billion—up 4.4% from February—driven by an 11% surge in motor vehicle imports and strong consumer goods demand outpacing export growth. Trailing 12-month deficit stands at $700 billion after narrower Q1 figures, but historical seasonality, robust domestic spending, and large fiscal deficits (CBO projects $1.9 trillion for FY2026) support expectations of expansion; Trump administration tariffs have increased duties collected to $20 billion monthly yet yielded persistent goods imbalances amid retaliation risks, with April data pending early June release potentially shifting probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$20,974Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the US goods and services trade deficit for full-year 2026 at 800–900 billion dollars (47.5%) as most likely, closely trailed by 900 billion–1 trillion (36.5%), reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data released May 5 showing the March gap widening to $60.3 billion—up 4.4% from February—driven by an 11% surge in motor vehicle imports and strong consumer goods demand outpacing export growth. Trailing 12-month deficit stands at $700 billion after narrower Q1 figures, but historical seasonality, robust domestic spending, and large fiscal deficits (CBO projects $1.9 trillion for FY2026) support expectations of expansion; Trump administration tariffs have increased duties collected to $20 billion monthly yet yielded persistent goods imbalances amid retaliation risks, with April data pending early June release potentially shifting probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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