Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the first-half cumulative gap at $371.2 billion—down sharply year-over-year as imports declined faster than exports following 2025 tariff adjustments and the normalization of prior front-loading. This trajectory, alongside CBO projections of exports outpacing imports through 2026 due to tariffs and gradual dollar depreciation, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 42% implied probability for an $800–900 billion full-year deficit and 32% for $700–800 billion. Ongoing policy uncertainty and potential shifts in capital flows or global demand remain key variables that could influence final annual figures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
27 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
31%
800–900 mil millones
42%
900 mil millones–1 billón
15%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 billones+
5%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
27 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
31%
800–900 mil millones
$1,519 Vol.
42%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$1,397 Vol.
15%
1T–1,1T
$1,458 Vol.
5%
1,1 billones+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the first-half cumulative gap at $371.2 billion—down sharply year-over-year as imports declined faster than exports following 2025 tariff adjustments and the normalization of prior front-loading. This trajectory, alongside CBO projections of exports outpacing imports through 2026 due to tariffs and gradual dollar depreciation, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 42% implied probability for an $800–900 billion full-year deficit and 32% for $700–800 billion. Ongoing policy uncertainty and potential shifts in capital flows or global demand remain key variables that could influence final annual figures.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$24,009Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the first-half cumulative gap at $371.2 billion—down sharply year-over-year as imports declined faster than exports following 2025 tariff adjustments and the normalization of prior front-loading. This trajectory, alongside CBO projections of exports outpacing imports through 2026 due to tariffs and gradual dollar depreciation, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 42% implied probability for an $800–900 billion full-year deficit and 32% for $700–800 billion. Ongoing policy uncertainty and potential shifts in capital flows or global demand remain key variables that could influence final annual figures.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$24,009Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the first-half cumulative gap at $371.2 billion—down sharply year-over-year as imports declined faster than exports following 2025 tariff adjustments and the normalization of prior front-loading. This trajectory, alongside CBO projections of exports outpacing imports through 2026 due to tariffs and gradual dollar depreciation, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 42% implied probability for an $800–900 billion full-year deficit and 32% for $700–800 billion. Ongoing policy uncertainty and potential shifts in capital flows or global demand remain key variables that could influence final annual figures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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