Recent U.S. trade data and policy adjustments keep the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges nearly tied, as markets weigh the lingering effects of 2025 tariff expansions against gradual economic rebalancing. Monthly goods-and-services shortfalls near 57 billion dollars through early 2026 reflect continued strength in capital-goods imports tied to AI investment, even as overall import growth slows. Congressional Budget Office projections show exports recovering at a faster clip than imports, supported by dollar depreciation and supply-chain shifts away from high-tariff partners. Any acceleration in domestic manufacturing incentives or new bilateral agreements could widen the gap toward the lower bracket, while sustained demand for foreign components would push totals higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
7%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
5%
700–800B
9%
800–900 mil millones
43%
900 mil millones–1 billón
36%
1T–1,1T
9%
1,1 billones+
5%
$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,637 Vol.
7%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
9%
800–900 mil millones
$1,008 Vol.
43%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$971 Vol.
36%
1T–1,1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1,1 billones+
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy adjustments keep the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges nearly tied, as markets weigh the lingering effects of 2025 tariff expansions against gradual economic rebalancing. Monthly goods-and-services shortfalls near 57 billion dollars through early 2026 reflect continued strength in capital-goods imports tied to AI investment, even as overall import growth slows. Congressional Budget Office projections show exports recovering at a faster clip than imports, supported by dollar depreciation and supply-chain shifts away from high-tariff partners. Any acceleration in domestic manufacturing incentives or new bilateral agreements could widen the gap toward the lower bracket, while sustained demand for foreign components would push totals higher.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$20,985Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy adjustments keep the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges nearly tied, as markets weigh the lingering effects of 2025 tariff expansions against gradual economic rebalancing. Monthly goods-and-services shortfalls near 57 billion dollars through early 2026 reflect continued strength in capital-goods imports tied to AI investment, even as overall import growth slows. Congressional Budget Office projections show exports recovering at a faster clip than imports, supported by dollar depreciation and supply-chain shifts away from high-tariff partners. Any acceleration in domestic manufacturing incentives or new bilateral agreements could widen the gap toward the lower bracket, while sustained demand for foreign components would push totals higher.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$20,985Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data and policy adjustments keep the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges nearly tied, as markets weigh the lingering effects of 2025 tariff expansions against gradual economic rebalancing. Monthly goods-and-services shortfalls near 57 billion dollars through early 2026 reflect continued strength in capital-goods imports tied to AI investment, even as overall import growth slows. Congressional Budget Office projections show exports recovering at a faster clip than imports, supported by dollar depreciation and supply-chain shifts away from high-tariff partners. Any acceleration in domestic manufacturing incentives or new bilateral agreements could widen the gap toward the lower bracket, while sustained demand for foreign components would push totals higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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