Vermont's November 3, 2026 gubernatorial contest between incumbent Republican Phil Scott and Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo features limited early indicators on total ballots cast, leaving trader probabilities evenly distributed across turnout ranges. Historical general-election participation in the state has fluctuated between roughly 290,000 and 370,000 votes in recent cycles, influenced by factors such as primary momentum, get-out-the-vote efforts, and voter registration trends near 500,000. The just-completed August 11 primaries recorded modest participation, particularly on the Republican side, providing one data point but little clarity on November mobilization. With roughly eleven weeks until election day, variables including campaign spending, national political climate, and any late developments in the race could still shift participation levels and create separation among the bins.