Vesuvius shows no signs of unrest capable of producing a VEI 1+ eruption in 2026, with Osservatorio Vesuviano data indicating only background seismicity, stable gas emissions, and minimal ground deformation. The volcano has remained quiescent since its last eruption in 1944, consistent with multi-decade repose intervals between VEI 1–3 events in the post-1631 period. Continuous monitoring by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology reveals no accelerated magma ascent or pressure buildup that would support near-term activity. While sudden seismic swarms or deformation spikes could theoretically alter forecasts, historical patterns and current measurements keep the implied probability of an eruption this year extremely low.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
5% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Vesuvius shows no signs of unrest capable of producing a VEI 1+ eruption in 2026, with Osservatorio Vesuviano data indicating only background seismicity, stable gas emissions, and minimal ground deformation. The volcano has remained quiescent since its last eruption in 1944, consistent with multi-decade repose intervals between VEI 1–3 events in the post-1631 period. Continuous monitoring by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology reveals no accelerated magma ascent or pressure buildup that would support near-term activity. While sudden seismic swarms or deformation spikes could theoretically alter forecasts, historical patterns and current measurements keep the implied probability of an eruption this year extremely low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercado abierto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$647Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Vesuvius shows no signs of unrest capable of producing a VEI 1+ eruption in 2026, with Osservatorio Vesuviano data indicating only background seismicity, stable gas emissions, and minimal ground deformation. The volcano has remained quiescent since its last eruption in 1944, consistent with multi-decade repose intervals between VEI 1–3 events in the post-1631 period. Continuous monitoring by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology reveals no accelerated magma ascent or pressure buildup that would support near-term activity. While sudden seismic swarms or deformation spikes could theoretically alter forecasts, historical patterns and current measurements keep the implied probability of an eruption this year extremely low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volumen
$647Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vesuvius shows no signs of unrest capable of producing a VEI 1+ eruption in 2026, with Osservatorio Vesuviano data indicating only background seismicity, stable gas emissions, and minimal ground deformation. The volcano has remained quiescent since its last eruption in 1944, consistent with multi-decade repose intervals between VEI 1–3 events in the post-1631 period. Continuous monitoring by Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology reveals no accelerated magma ascent or pressure buildup that would support near-term activity. While sudden seismic swarms or deformation spikes could theoretically alter forecasts, historical patterns and current measurements keep the implied probability of an eruption this year extremely low.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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