Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each near 23-30 percent and the Greens around 12-15 percent. The Coalition maintains a narrow two-party-preferred lead over Labor in most surveys, reflecting voter fatigue after more than a decade of Labor government and recent leadership instability that saw Jacinta Allan replaced by Ben Carroll. One Nation’s surge has split conservative support but appears to channel preferences toward the Coalition in seat-level projections. These dynamics underpin the market’s higher implied probability for a Liberal-National outcome, while Labor trails and minor parties remain longer shots given preference flows and electoral geography. Scheduled campaign events through late November could still shift momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Victoria
Ganador de las elecciones parlamentarias de Victoria
Liberal–National 63%
Labor 32%
One Nation 8%
Greens 2.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
63%
Labor
32%
One Nation
8%
Greens
2%
Liberal–National 63%
Labor 32%
One Nation 8%
Greens 2.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
28 nov 2026
Liberal–National
$1,288 Vol.
63%
Labor
$231 Vol.
32%
One Nation
$53 Vol.
8%
Greens
$100 Vol.
2%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each near 23-30 percent and the Greens around 12-15 percent. The Coalition maintains a narrow two-party-preferred lead over Labor in most surveys, reflecting voter fatigue after more than a decade of Labor government and recent leadership instability that saw Jacinta Allan replaced by Ben Carroll. One Nation’s surge has split conservative support but appears to channel preferences toward the Coalition in seat-level projections. These dynamics underpin the market’s higher implied probability for a Liberal-National outcome, while Labor trails and minor parties remain longer shots given preference flows and electoral geography. Scheduled campaign events through late November could still shift momentum.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Volumen
$1,672Fecha de finalización
28 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each near 23-30 percent and the Greens around 12-15 percent. The Coalition maintains a narrow two-party-preferred lead over Labor in most surveys, reflecting voter fatigue after more than a decade of Labor government and recent leadership instability that saw Jacinta Allan replaced by Ben Carroll. One Nation’s surge has split conservative support but appears to channel preferences toward the Coalition in seat-level projections. These dynamics underpin the market’s higher implied probability for a Liberal-National outcome, while Labor trails and minor parties remain longer shots given preference flows and electoral geography. Scheduled campaign events through late November could still shift momentum.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Volumen
$1,672Fecha de finalización
28 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls for Victoria’s November 28 state election show a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal-National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation each near 23-30 percent and the Greens around 12-15 percent. The Coalition maintains a narrow two-party-preferred lead over Labor in most surveys, reflecting voter fatigue after more than a decade of Labor government and recent leadership instability that saw Jacinta Allan replaced by Ben Carroll. One Nation’s surge has split conservative support but appears to channel preferences toward the Coalition in seat-level projections. These dynamics underpin the market’s higher implied probability for a Liberal-National outcome, while Labor trails and minor parties remain longer shots given preference flows and electoral geography. Scheduled campaign events through late November could still shift momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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