Ongoing mediated talks between the US and Iran center on ending their eight-month conflict through a phased agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and address sanctions relief alongside nuclear issues. Iran recently received an official US response to its latest proposal, following earlier ceasefires in April and June that collapsed. Qatari mediators have facilitated separate discussions, with both sides exchanging offers on asset unfreezing, hostilities cessation, and renewed nuclear talks. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether these efforts will yield a durable deal before year-end, given persistent gaps on timelines, verification, and scope. Upcoming diplomatic signals or further proposals could shift probabilities on specific deal elements.