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Clima Y Ciencia·Clima

¿Cómo se llamará el primer huracán en el Atlántico para la temporada de huracanes de 2026?

icon for ¿Cómo se llamará el primer huracán en el Atlántico para la temporada de huracanes de 2026?
Clima Y Ciencia·Clima

¿Cómo se llamará el primer huracán en el Atlántico para la temporada de huracanes de 2026?

Omar 37%

Kyle 37%

Leah 37%

Marco 37%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Omar 37%

Kyle 37%

Leah 37%

Marco 37%

Polymarket
NUEVO

Cristóbal

$26 Vol.

36%

Dolly

$26 Vol.

36%

Edouard

$26 Vol.

35%

Fay

$26 Vol.

35%

Gonzalo

$26 Vol.

35%

Hanna

$26 Vol.

36%

Isaias

$25 Vol.

36%

Josephine

$25 Vol.

36%

Kyle

$25 Vol.

37%

Leah

$25 Vol.

37%

Marco

$25 Vol.

37%

Nana

$25 Vol.

37%

Omar

$24 Vol.

37%

Paulette

$24 Vol.

37%

Rene

$24 Vol.

36%

Sally

$24 Vol.

35%

Teddy

$24 Vol.

36%

Vicky

$25 Vol.

36%

Wilfred

$23 Vol.

36%

Otro

$23 Vol.

36%

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. No hurricanes have formed in the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, where only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have occurred so far, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. The even ~50% market-implied odds across Cristobal through Wilfred (with earlier names like Dolly and Hanna slightly lower) reflect uncertainty over when subsequent systems will develop and reach the 74 mph sustained wind threshold for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA and CSU forecasts cite moderate El Niño conditions and other factors suppressing overall activity, which could delay intensification or shift formation later in the list. NHC model consensus updates and the next tropical weather outlook will be key near-term drivers for trader positioning.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volumen
$497
Fecha de finalización
2 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. No hurricanes have formed in the below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, where only Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha have occurred so far, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. The even ~50% market-implied odds across Cristobal through Wilfred (with earlier names like Dolly and Hanna slightly lower) reflect uncertainty over when subsequent systems will develop and reach the 74 mph sustained wind threshold for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale. NOAA and CSU forecasts cite moderate El Niño conditions and other factors suppressing overall activity, which could delay intensification or shift formation later in the list. NHC model consensus updates and the next tropical weather outlook will be key near-term drivers for trader positioning.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volumen
$497
Fecha de finalización
2 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cómo se llamará el primer huracán en el Atlántico para la temporada de huracanes de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 20 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Kyle" con 37%, seguido de "Leah" con 37%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 37¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Cómo se llamará el primer huracán en el Atlántico para la temporada de huracanes de 2026?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jul 24, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Cómo se llamará el primer huracán en el Atlántico para la temporada de huracanes de 2026?", explora los 20 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cómo se llamará el primer huracán en el Atlántico para la temporada de huracanes de 2026?" es "Kyle" con 37%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Leah" con 37%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cómo se llamará el primer huracán en el Atlántico para la temporada de huracanes de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.