Recent FOMC projections and communications have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near 4.0–4.5% by end-2027, with the September 2026 SEP showing a median of 4.1% at both year-end 2026 and 2027 amid elevated inflation readings (PCE near 3.4–3.7%). The September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% range, paired with minutes signaling another increase likely before December, reflects resilient growth, a stable labor market at roughly 4.1% unemployment, and upside risks to prices that have prompted a higher-for-longer policy path versus prior forecasts. Market-implied probabilities remain dispersed across 3.75–5.25% because the long horizon leaves room for shifts in inflation trajectory, labor conditions, or supply shocks, while the next dot plot in December and intervening data releases could refine the rate path priced by traders.