Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by record drought and heatwaves across the basin since early summer 2026, keep trader odds tightly split between mid-to-late September and October recovery windows. Gauges at key chokepoints like Kaub remain far below normal thresholds as of early September, with 2026 already logging more low-flow days than any year since 1997. Limited recent precipitation and seasonal dryness sustain the elevated risk of continued restrictions into fall, while any substantial rainfall in the upper catchment could quickly lift flows above navigation trouble lines. This weather-dependent uncertainty, rather than structural changes, maintains the near-even pricing between the leading September 15–30 and October intervals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuándo volverá el río Rin a sus niveles normales?
¿Cuándo volverá el río Rin a sus niveles normales?
1 - 31 de octubre de 2026 51%
15 - 30 de septiembre de 2026 50%
Sin regreso antes del 1 de noviembre de 2026 42%
Antes del 15 de septiembre de 2026 8.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 sep 2026
Antes del 15 de septiembre de 2026
8%
15 - 30 de septiembre de 2026
50%
1 - 31 de octubre de 2026
51%
Sin regreso antes del 1 de noviembre de 2026
42%
1 - 31 de octubre de 2026 51%
15 - 30 de septiembre de 2026 50%
Sin regreso antes del 1 de noviembre de 2026 42%
Antes del 15 de septiembre de 2026 8.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 sep 2026
Antes del 15 de septiembre de 2026
$492 Vol.
8%
15 - 30 de septiembre de 2026
$0 Vol.
50%
1 - 31 de octubre de 2026
$0 Vol.
51%
Sin regreso antes del 1 de noviembre de 2026
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by record drought and heatwaves across the basin since early summer 2026, keep trader odds tightly split between mid-to-late September and October recovery windows. Gauges at key chokepoints like Kaub remain far below normal thresholds as of early September, with 2026 already logging more low-flow days than any year since 1997. Limited recent precipitation and seasonal dryness sustain the elevated risk of continued restrictions into fall, while any substantial rainfall in the upper catchment could quickly lift flows above navigation trouble lines. This weather-dependent uncertainty, rather than structural changes, maintains the near-even pricing between the leading September 15–30 and October intervals.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Mercado abierto: Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
Volumen
$492Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by record drought and heatwaves across the basin since early summer 2026, keep trader odds tightly split between mid-to-late September and October recovery windows. Gauges at key chokepoints like Kaub remain far below normal thresholds as of early September, with 2026 already logging more low-flow days than any year since 1997. Limited recent precipitation and seasonal dryness sustain the elevated risk of continued restrictions into fall, while any substantial rainfall in the upper catchment could quickly lift flows above navigation trouble lines. This weather-dependent uncertainty, rather than structural changes, maintains the near-even pricing between the leading September 15–30 and October intervals.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Volumen
$492Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by record drought and heatwaves across the basin since early summer 2026, keep trader odds tightly split between mid-to-late September and October recovery windows. Gauges at key chokepoints like Kaub remain far below normal thresholds as of early September, with 2026 already logging more low-flow days than any year since 1997. Limited recent precipitation and seasonal dryness sustain the elevated risk of continued restrictions into fall, while any substantial rainfall in the upper catchment could quickly lift flows above navigation trouble lines. This weather-dependent uncertainty, rather than structural changes, maintains the near-even pricing between the leading September 15–30 and October intervals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes