Trader sentiment for the multi-outcome market centers on ongoing federal and state investigations into former U.S. intelligence officials, diplomats, and policy figures, with leading shares on John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil reflecting scrutiny over prior roles in intelligence operations, diplomacy, and protest-related matters. Recent weeks have seen no major new indictments or enforcement actions to alter positioning, leaving probabilities shaped by historical patterns of special counsel referrals, congressional oversight, and agency priorities rather than immediate triggers. With only months remaining before 2027, resolution depends on whether authorities file charges resulting in arrests within the window; broader enforcement trends in immigration and related areas provide limited direct precedent for these specific outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Quién será arrestado antes de 2027?
¿Quién será arrestado antes de 2027?
$379,271 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
11%
John Brennan
27%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
18%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
7%
Mahmoud Khalil
27%
James Clapper
13%
Letitia James
13%
Hillary Clinton
3%
Bill Clinton
2%
Loretta Lynch
10%
Susan Rice
9%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
6%
John Kerry
3%
Pam Bondi
4%
Tom Homan
12%
Kash Patel
3%
Brandon Johnson
13%
Lisa Cook
10%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
2%
$379,271 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$146,211 Vol.
11%
John Brennan
$19,756 Vol.
27%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$21,803 Vol.
18%
Adam Schiff
$16,402 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$29,064 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$9,602 Vol.
7%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,308 Vol.
27%
James Clapper
$6,726 Vol.
13%
Letitia James
$2,868 Vol.
13%
Hillary Clinton
$25,009 Vol.
3%
Bill Clinton
$2,494 Vol.
2%
Loretta Lynch
$2,376 Vol.
10%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
9%
Candace Owens
$263 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$37,596 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,789 Vol.
6%
John Kerry
$346 Vol.
3%
Pam Bondi
$1,998 Vol.
4%
Tom Homan
$39,860 Vol.
12%
Kash Patel
$530 Vol.
3%
Brandon Johnson
$3,191 Vol.
13%
Lisa Cook
$3,324 Vol.
10%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$5,658 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment for the multi-outcome market centers on ongoing federal and state investigations into former U.S. intelligence officials, diplomats, and policy figures, with leading shares on John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil reflecting scrutiny over prior roles in intelligence operations, diplomacy, and protest-related matters. Recent weeks have seen no major new indictments or enforcement actions to alter positioning, leaving probabilities shaped by historical patterns of special counsel referrals, congressional oversight, and agency priorities rather than immediate triggers. With only months remaining before 2027, resolution depends on whether authorities file charges resulting in arrests within the window; broader enforcement trends in immigration and related areas provide limited direct precedent for these specific outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$379,271Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment for the multi-outcome market centers on ongoing federal and state investigations into former U.S. intelligence officials, diplomats, and policy figures, with leading shares on John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil reflecting scrutiny over prior roles in intelligence operations, diplomacy, and protest-related matters. Recent weeks have seen no major new indictments or enforcement actions to alter positioning, leaving probabilities shaped by historical patterns of special counsel referrals, congressional oversight, and agency priorities rather than immediate triggers. With only months remaining before 2027, resolution depends on whether authorities file charges resulting in arrests within the window; broader enforcement trends in immigration and related areas provide limited direct precedent for these specific outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$379,271Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment for the multi-outcome market centers on ongoing federal and state investigations into former U.S. intelligence officials, diplomats, and policy figures, with leading shares on John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil reflecting scrutiny over prior roles in intelligence operations, diplomacy, and protest-related matters. Recent weeks have seen no major new indictments or enforcement actions to alter positioning, leaving probabilities shaped by historical patterns of special counsel referrals, congressional oversight, and agency priorities rather than immediate triggers. With only months remaining before 2027, resolution depends on whether authorities file charges resulting in arrests within the window; broader enforcement trends in immigration and related areas provide limited direct precedent for these specific outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes