John Cornyn’s refusal to actively back Republican nominee Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election against Democrat James Talarico has anchored trader expectations around a “nobody” outcome. After losing the May runoff to Paxton following Donald Trump’s endorsement, Cornyn has repeatedly cited primary criticisms of Paxton as “flawed” and less competitive in a general election, stating in late September he would not campaign or fundraise for him while still planning to vote Republican. Talarico has signaled openness to Cornyn’s support, but no reciprocal signals have emerged. These public positions, combined with Cornyn’s post-primary distance from the nominee and the absence of scheduled events forcing a choice, sustain the elevated probability on no endorsement while leaving room for last-minute shifts ahead of November 3.