Michael Alfonso holds a commanding lead in the Wisconsin 7th District House race due to the district’s strong Republican lean, where the party has won recent presidential contests by 20-plus points and the prior incumbent carried it by 27 points in 2024. As an open seat following Rep. Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial bid, Alfonso secured the GOP nomination with Trump’s endorsement and substantial backing from family ties to former Rep. Sean Duffy, outpacing Democrat Fred Clark in fundraising and super PAC support by wide margins. Clark, a former state assembly member, has run as an underdog emphasizing resource protection and working-family issues but trails significantly in spending and visibility. Forecasters project Alfonso winning by double digits, though an unusually large turnout shift or late-breaking development could narrow the gap before November 3.