Both the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans enter the 2026 season with modest implied probabilities around 3-5% each to capture Super Bowl LXI, per betting markets and prediction platforms. Multiple NFC and AFC contenders—including the Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and defending champion Seattle Seahawks—hold stronger rosters, superior depth at key positions, and recent playoff momentum that outpaces the Texas clubs. The Cowboys sit at 0-1 after Week 1 with questions around offensive consistency, while the Texans face a competitive AFC South and have yet to reach a conference title game in franchise history. Early-season results, schedule strength, and the broad distribution of talent across the league sustain trader consensus that a Texas team is unlikely to emerge as champion.