Recent polling from August 2026 shows roughly 61% of Albertans favor remaining a province of Canada versus 33% supporting steps toward a binding separation referendum, with earlier surveys from May–July reflecting similar or wider margins for unity. Premier Danielle Smith has framed the October 19, 2026, multi-question referendum—including the non-binding independence process question—as a means to strengthen provincial autonomy within Canada rather than pursue separation. First Nations leaders are mobilizing voters against separatist options, and support for an actual independence outcome remains low. These factors underpin the 93% trader consensus on “No,” reflecting limited momentum for passage before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
7% probabilidad
$254,298 Vol.
$254,298 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$254,298 Vol.
$254,298 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling from August 2026 shows roughly 61% of Albertans favor remaining a province of Canada versus 33% supporting steps toward a binding separation referendum, with earlier surveys from May–July reflecting similar or wider margins for unity. Premier Danielle Smith has framed the October 19, 2026, multi-question referendum—including the non-binding independence process question—as a means to strengthen provincial autonomy within Canada rather than pursue separation. First Nations leaders are mobilizing voters against separatist options, and support for an actual independence outcome remains low. These factors underpin the 93% trader consensus on “No,” reflecting limited momentum for passage before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volumen
$254,298Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling from August 2026 shows roughly 61% of Albertans favor remaining a province of Canada versus 33% supporting steps toward a binding separation referendum, with earlier surveys from May–July reflecting similar or wider margins for unity. Premier Danielle Smith has framed the October 19, 2026, multi-question referendum—including the non-binding independence process question—as a means to strengthen provincial autonomy within Canada rather than pursue separation. First Nations leaders are mobilizing voters against separatist options, and support for an actual independence outcome remains low. These factors underpin the 93% trader consensus on “No,” reflecting limited momentum for passage before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$254,298Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from August 2026 shows roughly 61% of Albertans favor remaining a province of Canada versus 33% supporting steps toward a binding separation referendum, with earlier surveys from May–July reflecting similar or wider margins for unity. Premier Danielle Smith has framed the October 19, 2026, multi-question referendum—including the non-binding independence process question—as a means to strengthen provincial autonomy within Canada rather than pursue separation. First Nations leaders are mobilizing voters against separatist options, and support for an actual independence outcome remains low. These factors underpin the 93% trader consensus on “No,” reflecting limited momentum for passage before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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