Recent May 2026 auctions, headlined by Jackson Pollock’s Number 7A fetching $181.2 million at Christie’s, have injected momentum toward a yes outcome by pushing multiple works into or near nine-figure territory. Yet trader sentiment remains nearly even at 53.5 percent for no because the ultra-high end depends on scarce, star-quality consignments from single-owner collections, and the second-half calendar lacks confirmed equivalents of that caliber. Strong overall market recovery in 2025, driven by renewed bidder confidence and record prices for Klimt and others, supports upside potential, but the narrow window to year-end leaves room for volatility if fewer trophy lots surface. Fall evening sales at Christie’s and Sotheby’s, plus any surprise private deals, could decisively shift the balance before December 31.