Current polling averages and forecasts for the November 2026 midterms show most competitive Senate and House races with projected margins of several points rather than near-zero outcomes, driven by a consistent Democratic lead of 5–6 points on the generic congressional ballot and stable leads in key battlegrounds such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Historical data indicate that certified federal and statewide results reaching 0.01% margins remain rare amid high-turnout general elections, even in toss-up districts or states. Recent primaries have produced isolated recounts at the 0.5% threshold or below, but no developments have narrowed any November contest to the required level, reinforcing trader consensus that the threshold will not be met.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Alguna elección de mitad de período federal o estatal de los EE. UU. estará dentro del 0.01%?
¿Alguna elección de mitad de período federal o estatal de los EE. UU. estará dentro del 0.01%?
16% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
16% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. Current polling averages and forecasts for the November 2026 midterms show most competitive Senate and House races with projected margins of several points rather than near-zero outcomes, driven by a consistent Democratic lead of 5–6 points on the generic congressional ballot and stable leads in key battlegrounds such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Historical data indicate that certified federal and statewide results reaching 0.01% margins remain rare amid high-turnout general elections, even in toss-up districts or states. Recent primaries have produced isolated recounts at the 0.5% threshold or below, but no developments have narrowed any November contest to the required level, reinforcing trader consensus that the threshold will not be met.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Volumen
$10Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. Current polling averages and forecasts for the November 2026 midterms show most competitive Senate and House races with projected margins of several points rather than near-zero outcomes, driven by a consistent Democratic lead of 5–6 points on the generic congressional ballot and stable leads in key battlegrounds such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Historical data indicate that certified federal and statewide results reaching 0.01% margins remain rare amid high-turnout general elections, even in toss-up districts or states. Recent primaries have produced isolated recounts at the 0.5% threshold or below, but no developments have narrowed any November contest to the required level, reinforcing trader consensus that the threshold will not be met.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.
For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$10Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current polling averages and forecasts for the November 2026 midterms show most competitive Senate and House races with projected margins of several points rather than near-zero outcomes, driven by a consistent Democratic lead of 5–6 points on the generic congressional ballot and stable leads in key battlegrounds such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. Historical data indicate that certified federal and statewide results reaching 0.01% margins remain rare amid high-turnout general elections, even in toss-up districts or states. Recent primaries have produced isolated recounts at the 0.5% threshold or below, but no developments have narrowed any November contest to the required level, reinforcing trader consensus that the threshold will not be met.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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