Apple’s packed late-2026 hardware slate, anchored by the imminent October launch of the iPhone Duo foldable smartphone and the long-delayed HomePad smart-home hub with touchscreen, drives the 64% market-implied odds for a new product line before 2027. These represent genuine category expansions beyond iterative updates to iPhones, Macs, or wearables, with the foldable introducing a new form factor and the hub extending Apple Intelligence and Siri AI into the smart-home display space. Supporting releases such as an OLED iPad mini and touchscreen MacBook Pro models further reinforce near-term momentum, though historical delays on the hub and typical supply-chain risks around holiday launches keep the probability from climbing higher. Key catalysts include the October 13 event window and final pre-order confirmations.