No California earthquake of moment magnitude 7.0 or greater has occurred through mid-August 2026, with USGS monitoring recording a maximum of 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and only minor aftershocks since. This aligns with UCERF3 model rates indicating roughly one magnitude 6.7+ event every 6–7 years statewide on average, rendering a late-year rupture statistically improbable before December 31. Elevated strain persists along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults without foreshock sequences or other immediate precursors. Trader consensus at 97.5% for “No” reflects the narrow remaining window, though an unexpected large slip on a major fault remains possible.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Experimentará California un terremoto de magnitud 7.0 o superior en 2026?
¿Experimentará California un terremoto de magnitud 7.0 o superior en 2026?
3% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ene 2027
3% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ene 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. No California earthquake of moment magnitude 7.0 or greater has occurred through mid-August 2026, with USGS monitoring recording a maximum of 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and only minor aftershocks since. This aligns with UCERF3 model rates indicating roughly one magnitude 6.7+ event every 6–7 years statewide on average, rendering a late-year rupture statistically improbable before December 31. Elevated strain persists along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults without foreshock sequences or other immediate precursors. Trader consensus at 97.5% for “No” reflects the narrow remaining window, though an unexpected large slip on a major fault remains possible.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volumen
$3,181Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable. No California earthquake of moment magnitude 7.0 or greater has occurred through mid-August 2026, with USGS monitoring recording a maximum of 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and only minor aftershocks since. This aligns with UCERF3 model rates indicating roughly one magnitude 6.7+ event every 6–7 years statewide on average, rendering a late-year rupture statistically improbable before December 31. Elevated strain persists along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults without foreshock sequences or other immediate precursors. Trader consensus at 97.5% for “No” reflects the narrow remaining window, though an unexpected large slip on a major fault remains possible.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries.
Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock.
Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.
Volumen
$3,181Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No California earthquake of moment magnitude 7.0 or greater has occurred through mid-August 2026, with USGS monitoring recording a maximum of 5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and only minor aftershocks since. This aligns with UCERF3 model rates indicating roughly one magnitude 6.7+ event every 6–7 years statewide on average, rendering a late-year rupture statistically improbable before December 31. Elevated strain persists along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults without foreshock sequences or other immediate precursors. Trader consensus at 97.5% for “No” reflects the narrow remaining window, though an unexpected large slip on a major fault remains possible.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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