Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including the 2026 US-Israel military campaign that began with airstrikes on February 28 and targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure, have eliminated any near-term prospect of diplomatic normalization or embassy reopening. Iran severed formal ties after 1979, and recent conflict escalation, proxy involvement, and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz reinforce adversarial positioning on both sides. Trader consensus at 98.8% for No reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any reconciliation signals. A complete Iranian regime transition or major policy reversal could theoretically enable talks, though no credible developments point to such shifts within the 2026 timeframe.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Reabrirá Israel su embajada en Irán en 2026?
¿Reabrirá Israel su embajada en Irán en 2026?
Sí
1% probabilidad
$194,115 Vol.
$194,115 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
1% probabilidad
$194,115 Vol.
$194,115 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including the 2026 US-Israel military campaign that began with airstrikes on February 28 and targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure, have eliminated any near-term prospect of diplomatic normalization or embassy reopening. Iran severed formal ties after 1979, and recent conflict escalation, proxy involvement, and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz reinforce adversarial positioning on both sides. Trader consensus at 98.8% for No reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any reconciliation signals. A complete Iranian regime transition or major policy reversal could theoretically enable talks, though no credible developments point to such shifts within the 2026 timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volumen
$194,115Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including the 2026 US-Israel military campaign that began with airstrikes on February 28 and targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure, have eliminated any near-term prospect of diplomatic normalization or embassy reopening. Iran severed formal ties after 1979, and recent conflict escalation, proxy involvement, and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz reinforce adversarial positioning on both sides. Trader consensus at 98.8% for No reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any reconciliation signals. A complete Iranian regime transition or major policy reversal could theoretically enable talks, though no credible developments point to such shifts within the 2026 timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$194,115Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, including the 2026 US-Israel military campaign that began with airstrikes on February 28 and targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure, have eliminated any near-term prospect of diplomatic normalization or embassy reopening. Iran severed formal ties after 1979, and recent conflict escalation, proxy involvement, and disputes over the Strait of Hormuz reinforce adversarial positioning on both sides. Trader consensus at 98.8% for No reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any reconciliation signals. A complete Iranian regime transition or major policy reversal could theoretically enable talks, though no credible developments point to such shifts within the 2026 timeframe.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes