Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has repeatedly ruled out direct contact with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu until a security agreement halts Israeli strikes and establishes a timetable for withdrawal from southern Lebanon. This stance, reinforced by domestic political pressures including opposition from Hezbollah, has stalled US-backed efforts for a leader-level call or meeting despite two prior rounds of envoy talks in Washington and a third scheduled for mid-May. Ongoing low-level clashes with Hezbollah and recent ceasefire extensions highlight the fragile negotiating environment, where Aoun prioritizes Lebanese sovereignty and internal consensus before any high-level engagement. These factors shape trader assessments of whether bilateral dialogue at the leadership level will occur by the market's resolution date.