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Política·Congreso

¿Perderán los republicanos la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes antes de las elecciones intermedias?

icon for ¿Perderán los republicanos la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes antes de las elecciones intermedias?
Política·Congreso

¿Perderán los republicanos la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes antes de las elecciones intermedias?

Sí

15% probabilidad
Polymarket

$12,225 Vol.

Sí

15% probabilidad
Polymarket

$12,225 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republicans hold a narrow 217-212 House majority (plus one independent and five vacancies) as of mid-May 2026, reflecting trader consensus at 85% against losing control before the November 3 midterms. Recent April resignations—Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), alongside Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) resignation and Reps. David Scott (D-GA) death—created vacancies in two GOP and three Democratic districts, balanced by earlier Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) death. GOP secured a hold in Georgia's 14th special election runoff on April 7, bolstering confidence. Upcoming specials in July-August for California-1 (GOP-leaning), California-14, Georgia-13, and Texas-23 face low flip risk per district partisan leans and historical special election patterns, with no further resignations or scandals threatening a cascade shift.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$12,225
Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republicans hold a narrow 217-212 House majority (plus one independent and five vacancies) as of mid-May 2026, reflecting trader consensus at 85% against losing control before the November 3 midterms. Recent April resignations—Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), alongside Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) resignation and Reps. David Scott (D-GA) death—created vacancies in two GOP and three Democratic districts, balanced by earlier Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) death. GOP secured a hold in Georgia's 14th special election runoff on April 7, bolstering confidence. Upcoming specials in July-August for California-1 (GOP-leaning), California-14, Georgia-13, and Texas-23 face low flip risk per district partisan leans and historical special election patterns, with no further resignations or scandals threatening a cascade shift.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$12,225
Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Perderán los republicanos la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes antes de las elecciones intermedias?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Perderán los republicanos la mayoría en la Cámara antes de las elecciones de mitad de mandato?" con 15%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 15¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 15% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Perderán los republicanos la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes antes de las elecciones intermedias?" ha generado $12.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 13, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Perderán los republicanos la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes antes de las elecciones intermedias?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Perderán los republicanos la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes antes de las elecciones intermedias?" es "¿Perderán los republicanos la mayoría en la Cámara antes de las elecciones de mitad de mandato?" con 15%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 15% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Perderán los republicanos la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes antes de las elecciones intermedias?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.