Ukrainian forces cleared Russian troops from the small village of Ternuvate in northeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast shortly after Moscow's late-January 2026 claims of capture, with no verified Russian positions maintained there since early February. The settlement lies near active sectors of the southern front where Russian units have conducted probing attacks and drone strikes while Ukrainian defenders have executed clearing operations. Recent Ukrainian counteroffensive gains in the broader Oleksandrivskyi direction—recapturing multiple settlements and over 600 square kilometers through mid-2026—have shifted local momentum and constrained Russian maneuver room. Trader assessments of renewed Russian entry hinge on the pace of any resumed advances toward Zaporizhzhia city, Ukrainian reinforcement flows, and confirmed frontline reporting from the sector rather than unverified claims.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Rusia volverá a entrar en Ternuvate antes de...?
$512,012 Vol.
31 de agosto
9%
$512,012 Vol.
31 de agosto
9%
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 12:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces cleared Russian troops from the small village of Ternuvate in northeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast shortly after Moscow's late-January 2026 claims of capture, with no verified Russian positions maintained there since early February. The settlement lies near active sectors of the southern front where Russian units have conducted probing attacks and drone strikes while Ukrainian defenders have executed clearing operations. Recent Ukrainian counteroffensive gains in the broader Oleksandrivskyi direction—recapturing multiple settlements and over 600 square kilometers through mid-2026—have shifted local momentum and constrained Russian maneuver room. Trader assessments of renewed Russian entry hinge on the pace of any resumed advances toward Zaporizhzhia city, Ukrainian reinforcement flows, and confirmed frontline reporting from the sector rather than unverified claims.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado



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