Tesla's early 2026 Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas, with pilot units in February and volume output from April, has yet to yield any confirmed retail sales at or below the $30,000 target price. Traders see an 86.5% implied probability against a qualifying customer delivery this year because Tesla has prioritized its own robotaxi fleet while awaiting scaled unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability and broader regulatory approvals for vehicles without steering wheels or pedals. Musk has acknowledged slow initial output and shifted emphasis toward 2027 for meaningful consumer availability, consistent with past autonomy timeline slippage. Key near-term catalysts include FSD software milestones and any state-level certifications that could accelerate or further delay private sales.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
14% probabilidad
$47,896 Vol.
$47,896 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
14% probabilidad
$47,896 Vol.
$47,896 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's early 2026 Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas, with pilot units in February and volume output from April, has yet to yield any confirmed retail sales at or below the $30,000 target price. Traders see an 86.5% implied probability against a qualifying customer delivery this year because Tesla has prioritized its own robotaxi fleet while awaiting scaled unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability and broader regulatory approvals for vehicles without steering wheels or pedals. Musk has acknowledged slow initial output and shifted emphasis toward 2027 for meaningful consumer availability, consistent with past autonomy timeline slippage. Key near-term catalysts include FSD software milestones and any state-level certifications that could accelerate or further delay private sales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$47,896Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's early 2026 Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas, with pilot units in February and volume output from April, has yet to yield any confirmed retail sales at or below the $30,000 target price. Traders see an 86.5% implied probability against a qualifying customer delivery this year because Tesla has prioritized its own robotaxi fleet while awaiting scaled unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability and broader regulatory approvals for vehicles without steering wheels or pedals. Musk has acknowledged slow initial output and shifted emphasis toward 2027 for meaningful consumer availability, consistent with past autonomy timeline slippage. Key near-term catalysts include FSD software milestones and any state-level certifications that could accelerate or further delay private sales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$47,896Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's early 2026 Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas, with pilot units in February and volume output from April, has yet to yield any confirmed retail sales at or below the $30,000 target price. Traders see an 86.5% implied probability against a qualifying customer delivery this year because Tesla has prioritized its own robotaxi fleet while awaiting scaled unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability and broader regulatory approvals for vehicles without steering wheels or pedals. Musk has acknowledged slow initial output and shifted emphasis toward 2027 for meaningful consumer availability, consistent with past autonomy timeline slippage. Key near-term catalysts include FSD software milestones and any state-level certifications that could accelerate or further delay private sales.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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