Tesla's Cybercab, unveiled in 2024 with a targeted sub-$30,000 price and no steering wheel or pedals, began limited production at Gigafactory Texas in April 2026 amid ongoing unsupervised FSD testing in Austin. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86% implied probability because scaling to customer sales at that price point this year remains blocked by regulatory hurdles for fully autonomous vehicles, slow manufacturing ramp-up using the new unboxed process, and Tesla's priority on building its own robotaxi fleet over individual retail deliveries. Recent EPA filings and prototype sightings confirm hardware progress, yet historical timeline slippage and the need for broad approvals keep near-term availability uncertain. Key catalysts ahead include any Texas or California regulatory clearances and verified production volume updates through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
14% probabilidad
$47,914 Vol.
$47,914 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
14% probabilidad
$47,914 Vol.
$47,914 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab, unveiled in 2024 with a targeted sub-$30,000 price and no steering wheel or pedals, began limited production at Gigafactory Texas in April 2026 amid ongoing unsupervised FSD testing in Austin. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86% implied probability because scaling to customer sales at that price point this year remains blocked by regulatory hurdles for fully autonomous vehicles, slow manufacturing ramp-up using the new unboxed process, and Tesla's priority on building its own robotaxi fleet over individual retail deliveries. Recent EPA filings and prototype sightings confirm hardware progress, yet historical timeline slippage and the need for broad approvals keep near-term availability uncertain. Key catalysts ahead include any Texas or California regulatory clearances and verified production volume updates through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$47,914Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab, unveiled in 2024 with a targeted sub-$30,000 price and no steering wheel or pedals, began limited production at Gigafactory Texas in April 2026 amid ongoing unsupervised FSD testing in Austin. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86% implied probability because scaling to customer sales at that price point this year remains blocked by regulatory hurdles for fully autonomous vehicles, slow manufacturing ramp-up using the new unboxed process, and Tesla's priority on building its own robotaxi fleet over individual retail deliveries. Recent EPA filings and prototype sightings confirm hardware progress, yet historical timeline slippage and the need for broad approvals keep near-term availability uncertain. Key catalysts ahead include any Texas or California regulatory clearances and verified production volume updates through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$47,914Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Cybercab, unveiled in 2024 with a targeted sub-$30,000 price and no steering wheel or pedals, began limited production at Gigafactory Texas in April 2026 amid ongoing unsupervised FSD testing in Austin. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86% implied probability because scaling to customer sales at that price point this year remains blocked by regulatory hurdles for fully autonomous vehicles, slow manufacturing ramp-up using the new unboxed process, and Tesla's priority on building its own robotaxi fleet over individual retail deliveries. Recent EPA filings and prototype sightings confirm hardware progress, yet historical timeline slippage and the need for broad approvals keep near-term availability uncertain. Key catalysts ahead include any Texas or California regulatory clearances and verified production volume updates through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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