The Philippine Senate's political composition, featuring a bloc of Duterte-aligned senators, forms the main driver behind the 60% implied probability against conviction. Reaching the constitutional threshold of 16 guilty votes out of 24 remains difficult absent major shifts in alliances, consistent with historical patterns in high-profile impeachment proceedings. The ongoing trial, which opened on July 6, 2026, after the House transmitted articles in May on charges including misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and alleged threats, continues into its fourth week of hearings as of mid-September. Recent caucus discussions on whether the two-thirds requirement applies to all members or only participating senators introduce procedural uncertainty but have not altered the underlying arithmetic favoring acquittal or dismissal. The extended schedule, projected well into 2027, further limits near-term conviction prospects while traders monitor any cross-aisle developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
39% probabilidad
$13,804 Vol.
$13,804 Vol.
31 dic 2026
39% probabilidad
$13,804 Vol.
$13,804 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's political composition, featuring a bloc of Duterte-aligned senators, forms the main driver behind the 60% implied probability against conviction. Reaching the constitutional threshold of 16 guilty votes out of 24 remains difficult absent major shifts in alliances, consistent with historical patterns in high-profile impeachment proceedings. The ongoing trial, which opened on July 6, 2026, after the House transmitted articles in May on charges including misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and alleged threats, continues into its fourth week of hearings as of mid-September. Recent caucus discussions on whether the two-thirds requirement applies to all members or only participating senators introduce procedural uncertainty but have not altered the underlying arithmetic favoring acquittal or dismissal. The extended schedule, projected well into 2027, further limits near-term conviction prospects while traders monitor any cross-aisle developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Mercado abierto: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volumen
$13,804Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's political composition, featuring a bloc of Duterte-aligned senators, forms the main driver behind the 60% implied probability against conviction. Reaching the constitutional threshold of 16 guilty votes out of 24 remains difficult absent major shifts in alliances, consistent with historical patterns in high-profile impeachment proceedings. The ongoing trial, which opened on July 6, 2026, after the House transmitted articles in May on charges including misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and alleged threats, continues into its fourth week of hearings as of mid-September. Recent caucus discussions on whether the two-thirds requirement applies to all members or only participating senators introduce procedural uncertainty but have not altered the underlying arithmetic favoring acquittal or dismissal. The extended schedule, projected well into 2027, further limits near-term conviction prospects while traders monitor any cross-aisle developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$13,804Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Philippine Senate's political composition, featuring a bloc of Duterte-aligned senators, forms the main driver behind the 60% implied probability against conviction. Reaching the constitutional threshold of 16 guilty votes out of 24 remains difficult absent major shifts in alliances, consistent with historical patterns in high-profile impeachment proceedings. The ongoing trial, which opened on July 6, 2026, after the House transmitted articles in May on charges including misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, and alleged threats, continues into its fourth week of hearings as of mid-September. Recent caucus discussions on whether the two-thirds requirement applies to all members or only participating senators introduce procedural uncertainty but have not altered the underlying arithmetic favoring acquittal or dismissal. The extended schedule, projected well into 2027, further limits near-term conviction prospects while traders monitor any cross-aisle developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes