Recent UAP transparency efforts under the PURSUE program have produced multiple tranches of declassified records through late 2026, including FBI and AARO accounts of a matte-black triangular object observed near a western U.S. security site, yet all resolved cases continue to be attributed to prosaic sources such as satellites or balloons. The House-passed UAP Disclosure Act amendment to the FY2027 NDAA would create an independent review board with subpoena power, but Senate action remains stalled amid midterm election outcomes that shift congressional control. NDA waivers now permit limited disclosures to authorized channels, though no President, Cabinet member, Joint Chiefs official, or federal agency has issued a definitive statement confirming extraterrestrial life or technology. Trader consensus therefore prices the probability of such confirmation by year-end at low single digits, reflecting the absence of structural triggers for an affirmative declaration before the December 31 resolution deadline.