Traders assign a 96.7% probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, reflecting the absence of military deployments, official policy statements, or diplomatic breakdowns that would typically precede such an action. U.S. foreign policy priorities remain focused elsewhere, with bilateral engagement conducted through established channels and no indications of intent to escalate to armed conflict. Invasions of this scale historically require congressional authorization, sustained domestic support, and coordination with allies, none of which are evident in current conditions. Late developments that could still alter the outlook include sudden regional security crises, shifts in administration priorities, or major incidents prompting military responses within the resolution window.