**Strengthened bilateral security cooperation since early 2026 has anchored trader consensus that a full U.S. invasion of Mexico remains highly improbable.** Early-year rhetoric from the Trump administration about potential land strikes on cartels prompted Mexican operations, including the February killing of CJNG leader El Mencho with U.S. intelligence support, alongside expanded extraditions and joint counter-narcotics efforts. These steps, combined with Mexico’s rejection of unilateral intervention and ongoing USMCA trade ties, have shifted focus toward coordinated enforcement rather than military incursion. Traders price the 97.5% No outcome on the absence of any mobilization or authorization for invasion-scale action through mid-August. Realistic variables that could still shift odds include a sudden breakdown in cooperation, major cross-border incident, or policy pivot before year-end, though constitutional, diplomatic, and economic barriers make such an outcome unlikely.