The January 2026 U.S. military operation in Venezuela—limited strikes and the capture of Nicolás Maduro—has shaped trader views on any full-scale invasion market, with the action framed by officials as a targeted counternarcotics effort rather than occupation or regime change. Subsequent normalization of diplomatic ties by March, reopening of the U.S. embassy, lifting of certain sanctions, and cooperation on deportations and political prisoner releases have further reduced escalation risks through mid-2026. Ongoing factors include U.S. emphasis on Venezuelan oil infrastructure oversight, drug trafficking designations, and bipartisan Senate calls for elections, alongside Venezuela’s interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez and recent natural disasters. No major troop deployments or new military buildups have occurred since the initial strikes, keeping implied probabilities for a broader invasion low absent fresh triggers.