Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations since 1980, combined with ongoing sanctions, proxy conflicts, and the 2026 Iran war involving U.S. and Israeli strikes, underpins trader consensus that the United States will not reopen an embassy in Tehran this year. The Swiss government continues to serve as protecting power for U.S. interests, with no Senate actions, State Department initiatives, or bilateral agreements signaling restoration by December 31. Recent negotiations produced only limited memoranda without addressing full normalization or consular operations. A rapid de-escalation yielding comprehensive diplomatic ties before year-end remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes, though current conditions show no such trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
Sí
5% probabilidad
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations since 1980, combined with ongoing sanctions, proxy conflicts, and the 2026 Iran war involving U.S. and Israeli strikes, underpins trader consensus that the United States will not reopen an embassy in Tehran this year. The Swiss government continues to serve as protecting power for U.S. interests, with no Senate actions, State Department initiatives, or bilateral agreements signaling restoration by December 31. Recent negotiations produced only limited memoranda without addressing full normalization or consular operations. A rapid de-escalation yielding comprehensive diplomatic ties before year-end remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes, though current conditions show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volumen
$158,294Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations since 1980, combined with ongoing sanctions, proxy conflicts, and the 2026 Iran war involving U.S. and Israeli strikes, underpins trader consensus that the United States will not reopen an embassy in Tehran this year. The Swiss government continues to serve as protecting power for U.S. interests, with no Senate actions, State Department initiatives, or bilateral agreements signaling restoration by December 31. Recent negotiations produced only limited memoranda without addressing full normalization or consular operations. A rapid de-escalation yielding comprehensive diplomatic ties before year-end remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes, though current conditions show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$158,294Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations since 1980, combined with ongoing sanctions, proxy conflicts, and the 2026 Iran war involving U.S. and Israeli strikes, underpins trader consensus that the United States will not reopen an embassy in Tehran this year. The Swiss government continues to serve as protecting power for U.S. interests, with no Senate actions, State Department initiatives, or bilateral agreements signaling restoration by December 31. Recent negotiations produced only limited memoranda without addressing full normalization or consular operations. A rapid de-escalation yielding comprehensive diplomatic ties before year-end remains the primary scenario that could still shift outcomes, though current conditions show no such trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes