Ongoing tensions from the 2025–2026 US-Iran conflict, including strikes, ceasefires, and the June Islamabad Memorandum, have not produced the full diplomatic normalization required for embassy reopening. As of mid-August 2026, talks remain deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz access and sanctions relief, with the United States maintaining economic pressure, Level 4 travel advisories, and no direct diplomatic presence since 1980. Swiss interests section services continue without upgrade to formal relations. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening in 2026 reflects these structural barriers and the short timeline remaining. Breakthroughs via accelerated nuclear or security agreements could still shift probabilities before year-end, though current evidence points to extended negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
Sí
5% probabilidad
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing tensions from the 2025–2026 US-Iran conflict, including strikes, ceasefires, and the June Islamabad Memorandum, have not produced the full diplomatic normalization required for embassy reopening. As of mid-August 2026, talks remain deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz access and sanctions relief, with the United States maintaining economic pressure, Level 4 travel advisories, and no direct diplomatic presence since 1980. Swiss interests section services continue without upgrade to formal relations. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening in 2026 reflects these structural barriers and the short timeline remaining. Breakthroughs via accelerated nuclear or security agreements could still shift probabilities before year-end, though current evidence points to extended negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volumen
$158,294Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing tensions from the 2025–2026 US-Iran conflict, including strikes, ceasefires, and the June Islamabad Memorandum, have not produced the full diplomatic normalization required for embassy reopening. As of mid-August 2026, talks remain deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz access and sanctions relief, with the United States maintaining economic pressure, Level 4 travel advisories, and no direct diplomatic presence since 1980. Swiss interests section services continue without upgrade to formal relations. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening in 2026 reflects these structural barriers and the short timeline remaining. Breakthroughs via accelerated nuclear or security agreements could still shift probabilities before year-end, though current evidence points to extended negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$158,294Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions from the 2025–2026 US-Iran conflict, including strikes, ceasefires, and the June Islamabad Memorandum, have not produced the full diplomatic normalization required for embassy reopening. As of mid-August 2026, talks remain deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz access and sanctions relief, with the United States maintaining economic pressure, Level 4 travel advisories, and no direct diplomatic presence since 1980. Swiss interests section services continue without upgrade to formal relations. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening in 2026 reflects these structural barriers and the short timeline remaining. Breakthroughs via accelerated nuclear or security agreements could still shift probabilities before year-end, though current evidence points to extended negotiations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes