**Republican congressional majorities and procedural leverage have kept formal vetoes infrequent so far in 2026.** With GOP control of both chambers, most passed legislation aligns closely with administration priorities, reducing the volume of bills that reach the president’s desk in opposition. Traders price a 65% chance Trump issues no veto (including pocket veto) by year-end because recent patterns show reliance on signature withholding, reconciliation packaging, and demands for attached measures like voter-ID provisions instead of outright rejection. The two vetoes issued to date targeted narrow, politically motivated projects and faced failed override attempts, underscoring that Congress has largely avoided sending divergent legislation. With midterms looming and the calendar tightening, the implied probability reflects the low likelihood of new override fights or must-pass bills diverging enough to prompt additional vetoes before December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
50% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
50% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to Yes if President Trump issues a presidential veto, including a "pocket veto," by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred when the relevant bill is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto's effect is not realized until after the date referenced above. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Republican congressional majorities and procedural leverage have kept formal vetoes infrequent so far in 2026.** With GOP control of both chambers, most passed legislation aligns closely with administration priorities, reducing the volume of bills that reach the president’s desk in opposition. Traders price a 65% chance Trump issues no veto (including pocket veto) by year-end because recent patterns show reliance on signature withholding, reconciliation packaging, and demands for attached measures like voter-ID provisions instead of outright rejection.
The two vetoes issued to date targeted narrow, politically motivated projects and faced failed override attempts, underscoring that Congress has largely avoided sending divergent legislation. With midterms looming and the calendar tightening, the implied probability reflects the low likelihood of new override fights or must-pass bills diverging enough to prompt additional vetoes before December 31.
This market will resolve to Yes if President Trump issues a presidential veto, including a "pocket veto," by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred when the relevant bill is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto's effect is not realized until after the date referenced above. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred when the relevant bill is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto's effect is not realized until after the date referenced above. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 25, 2026, 11:49 AM ET
Volumen
$5,321Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 25, 2026, 11:49 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to Yes if President Trump issues a presidential veto, including a "pocket veto," by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred when the relevant bill is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto's effect is not realized until after the date referenced above. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Republican congressional majorities and procedural leverage have kept formal vetoes infrequent so far in 2026.** With GOP control of both chambers, most passed legislation aligns closely with administration priorities, reducing the volume of bills that reach the president’s desk in opposition. Traders price a 65% chance Trump issues no veto (including pocket veto) by year-end because recent patterns show reliance on signature withholding, reconciliation packaging, and demands for attached measures like voter-ID provisions instead of outright rejection.
The two vetoes issued to date targeted narrow, politically motivated projects and faced failed override attempts, underscoring that Congress has largely avoided sending divergent legislation. With midterms looming and the calendar tightening, the implied probability reflects the low likelihood of new override fights or must-pass bills diverging enough to prompt additional vetoes before December 31.
This market will resolve to Yes if President Trump issues a presidential veto, including a "pocket veto," by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred when the relevant bill is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto's effect is not realized until after the date referenced above. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred when the relevant bill is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto's effect is not realized until after the date referenced above. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known.
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$5,321Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jun 25, 2026, 11:49 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Republican congressional majorities and procedural leverage have kept formal vetoes infrequent so far in 2026.** With GOP control of both chambers, most passed legislation aligns closely with administration priorities, reducing the volume of bills that reach the president’s desk in opposition. Traders price a 65% chance Trump issues no veto (including pocket veto) by year-end because recent patterns show reliance on signature withholding, reconciliation packaging, and demands for attached measures like voter-ID provisions instead of outright rejection. The two vetoes issued to date targeted narrow, politically motivated projects and faced failed override attempts, underscoring that Congress has largely avoided sending divergent legislation. With midterms looming and the calendar tightening, the implied probability reflects the low likelihood of new override fights or must-pass bills diverging enough to prompt additional vetoes before December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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